As a LTF guy, my bias flip flops every week, so “200k or 0” calls have little impact on my trades.

CT bears calling for huge deviations were more respected historically because the market was much more susceptible to buy pressure being primarily driven by synthetic money (MEX perps). This means the market going up in smoke at any moment was much more likely. 60% of holders provided a base floor but depending on the market cycle, only meaningful “buy pressure” was degenerates on leverage.

Now? Countries, bankers, funds and treasuries are buying it. It’s much, much more liquid than what we grew up with years prior.

These types are exposed to global macro risk, not perp traders 40x’ing 20M.

Which is to say: I would have far more respect for bears calling massive retraces if they were doing meaningful analysis on macro / market at large. For your 50k bear case to move the needle for me, it needs to illustrate “everything is going to 0”

Zooming out to BTC’s 1M chart, dropping a trend line, drawing a squiggly line down to 50k and dropping the market analysis equivalent of “👀”? So long and thanks for all the fish.