President Trump is considering new sanctions on China’s tech industry, sparking a downturn in TradFi markets and $800 million in crypto liquidations. Tariff threats caused general chaos, and sanctions could reignite trouble.
Still, there might be a long-term silver lining in all this. De-dollarization is leading investors across Asia to invest in Bitcoin, and trade war escalation may pull capital away from the USD into crypto.
How Would Trump’s China Sanctions Affect Crypto?
Over the past few months, Trump’s tariffs have threatened a US-China trade war, bringing deleterious effects to the crypto market.
Derailed talks brought crashes, settled deals meant prosperity, and rumors had a powerful impact on the entire market. Unrelated to tariffs, Trump is reportedly considering sanctions on China, sending TradFi into panic:
Specifically, this sanctions plan aims at China’s growing tech industry, targeting subsidiaries of major conglomerates like Huawei or semiconductor manufacturers.
Bloomberg reported that these alleged sanctions won’t take place until June, but crypto immediately reacted. The whole market fell 5%, Bitcoin fell below $105,000, and total crypto liquidations reached $827 million.
Crypto Liquidation Heatmap. Source: Coinglass
Even before today’s sanctions news, markets remained wary of renewed tariffs and a cautious Federal Reserve. In early February, a similar sell-off saw Bitcoin slide 6 percent on fears of a trade-war-induced global slowdown.
Today’s actions reinforced those worries, triggering a slide in both equities and crypto.
China and the US settled their tariff negotiations less than a month ago, but the threat of new sanctions could reignite all the same recession fears.
Leading Chinese economists warn that this move may be a prelude to further trade wars, especially because the US is targeting China’s largest growth industries. There are clear reasons to be nervous about escalation.
For example, on May 29, the US already moved to broaden export controls on chip design software, certain chemicals, and industrial tools destined for China, revoking existing licenses and choking off key semiconductor inputs.
Heightened US-China tech friction spooked risk-asset investors, who view crypto as a volatile barometer of broader market sentiment.
Another round of economic saber-rattling will surely bring chaos, but could there be an upside for crypto? As the US economic policies turn increasingly erratic, de-dollarization is gaining traction in Asia.
As part of this trend, economies are shifting from the dollar towards assets like gold, the Chinese yuan, and cryptocurrency.
In other words, if the US sanctions China yet again, investors across the whole region might park their capital in Bitcoin instead of USD.
Still, this may be a marginal advantage, as the US is more integrated with crypto markets. There’s a lot of debate over how crypto would perform during a US recession, and it’s too early to have a definitive answer.
Hopefully, Trump will back down from additional China sanctions, just like he did with tariffs. If so, this could allow crypto markets to return to business as usual, as they’ve been exhibiting low volatility.
However, in the event of another trade war escalation, crypto may behave in some unexpected ways.
