Lee Jae-myung is leading S. Korea’s presidential race with a 96.8% chance on Polymarket.
The June 3 election is pivotal for crypto policy; 36% of eligible S. Korean voters own crypto.
Candidates propose pro-crypto measures like spot Bitcoin ETFs and improved bank access.
Lee Jae-myung is emerging as a frontrunner for South Korea’s 2025 presidential election, according to trader sentiment on Polymarket. As of this press time, the Democratic Party candidate is leading at 96.8% per share, reflecting a 96.8% market-implied chance of victory.
Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market where users bet real money on future events. Each “Yes” share pays out $1 if the event occurs and nothing if it does not. The closer the price is to $1, the higher the market’s confidence in that outcome.
Meanwhile, the pricing does not reflect polling or vote share. A common misconception is that a 97-cent “Yes” price equates to 97% of expected votes. In reality, the figure reflects the collective probability, as perceived by market participants, that Lee will win the election.
For example, even if a candidate is expected to win narrowly, a high “Yes” pric…
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