Following Friday's dramatic decline, Tuesday's Bitcoin price is recovering for the fourth straight day.
Rising volatility reported by QCP Capital indicates that traders are setting themselves ahead of the Bitcoin Conference in Las Vegas.
Short-term holders are enjoying profit, hence traders should exercise caution as this might generate selling pressure.
After its almost 4% drop on Friday, Bitcoin (BTC) keeps on recovering and grabs $109,000 on Tuesday. Starting Tuesday in Las Vegas, the much awaited Bitcoin 2025 Conference attracts more interest from investors and traders. The increase in near-term implied volatility, according to QCP Capital, points to market players orienting themselves around possible headline risks connected to the event, which might cause volatility spikes and liquidations in the biggest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization.
Trader lock-in at Las Vegas' Bitcoin Conference
One important event to keep on eye is the Bitcoin conference in Las Vegas, Nevada, Tuesday through Thursday. Sixth annual Bitcoin conference since 2019, this three-day event highlights the expansion, creativity, and acceptance of Bitcoin.
Among some of the most influential figures in crypto, finance, and politics, the much awaited Bitcoin 2025 Conference assembles
The following are some of the speaker names:
JD Vance, Vice President of the United States
Michael Saylor is MicroStrategy's executive chairman.
Donald Trump Jr. - Businessman
Eric Trump: Chief Strategy Officer and Co-founder
Senator Cynthia Lummis, US Senate
Commissioner, United States SEC, Hester Peirce
Ross Ulbricht, Advocate of Digital Freedom
Nigel Farage, UK Member of Parliament
According to QCP's Capital, consistent increase in near-term volatility points to traders positioned around headline risk prior to this occurrence.
The paper also notes that while current US President Donald Trump spoke at the Nashville Bitcoin Conference 2024, 1-day implied volatility over 90 surged sharply. Two days later, this volatility surge was followed by a quick turn-around that almost dropped BTC by thirty percent.
"The possibility of a comparable decline seems low; positioning reflects a defensive bias (.....).”
"BTC is likely to remain range-bound in the near term; once the event passes and key speeches conclude, front-end vols are expected to compress as risk premia fade," the analyst of QCP notes.
The graph below shows that, in a startling contrast to the $1.2 billion achieved in the previous 30-day period, during the last 30 days BTC's short-term investors have realized a total $11.4 billion in profit. This increase in profit booking also suggests some degree of stabilization is probably as the market absorbs this wave of distribution before trying another leg higher.
The institutional demand keeps becoming stronger notwithstanding transient selling pressure. Strategy added 4,020 BTC for $427.1 million on Monday, thereby augmenting the total BTC holdings to 580,250 BTC.
On Thursday, Bitcoin price hit a new all-time high (ATH) of $111,980; on Friday, it dropped 3.92%. On Saturday, it found support around the $106,406 daily mark, however, and rebounded over the last two days. By Tuesday, while I was writing, it is still healing and trading at $109,600.
Should BTC keep on its recovery and close over its all-time high, the surge toward the important psychological milestone of $120,000 may be extended.
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