Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a 6.54% increase in value over the past 24 hours, trading at $93,684 despite weak liquidity and declining market demand.
Spot market demand for Bitcoin has dropped significantly, with a 146,000 BTC decline, equating to a $13 billion reduction in demand.
Bitcoin’s demand momentum has hit its lowest level since October 2024, with a cumulative decline of 624,000 BTC.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen reduced activity, with net flows ranging between -5,000 and +3,000 BTC, a sharp contrast to the higher accumulation seen in late 2024.
Stablecoin supply, particularly USDT, has increased by $2.9 billion over the past 60 days, but this growth remains insufficient to sustain a major Bitcoin rally.
A recent $1 billion USDT minting suggests renewed market interest, potentially signaling a shift in sentiment and paving the way for a Bitcoin rally if liquidity continues to improve.
Bitcoin’s Recent Surge: A Mixed Bag of Growth and Challenges
Bitcoin’s recent price surge to $93,684, marking a 6.54% increase in just 24 hours, has reignited optimism in the market. However, this growth comes against a backdrop of declining demand and weak liquidity, raising questions about the sustainability of the rally. While the price increase is a positive development, the underlying market dynamics paint a more complex picture.
The decline in market demand is particularly notable. Over the past 30 days, Bitcoin’s spot market demand has dropped by 146,000 BTC, equivalent to a $13 billion reduction. Although this decline is less severe than the 311,000 BTC drop recorded in March, it highlights a persistent weakness in demand momentum. This metric, which compares the buying activity of new investors to that of older ones, has fallen to its lowest level since October 2024, signaling a lack of fresh liquidity entering the market.
Weak Demand Momentum and ETF Activity
The weakening demand momentum is not limited to the spot market. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have also seen a significant decline in activity. Since March, net flows in these ETFs have ranged between -5,000 and +3,000 BTC, a stark contrast to the 8,000 BTC purchased daily during the November-December period of 2024. This reduced activity reflects a broader hesitancy among institutional investors to accumulate Bitcoin at current levels.
To put this into perspective, the net flow of Bitcoin in 2024 by this time was a robust 208,000 BTC purchased. In contrast, 2025 has seen a net flow of 10,000 BTC sold, underscoring a dramatic shift in market sentiment. This decline in accumulation is closely tied to reduced market liquidity, which is a critical driver of sustained price rallies. Without sufficient liquidity, Bitcoin’s upward momentum may struggle to gain traction.
The Role of Stablecoins in Market Liquidity
Stablecoins, particularly USDT, play a crucial role in providing liquidity to the cryptocurrency market. Over the past 60 days, the USDT supply has expanded by $2.9 billion, indicating a modest increase in market demand. However, this growth falls short of the $5 billion threshold typically associated with Bitcoin rallies. Historically, Bitcoin’s price surges have coincided with stablecoin market capitalization exceeding its 30-day average, a condition that has yet to be met.
Despite this, there are signs of renewed interest in stablecoins. In the past 24 hours alone, $1 billion in USDT was minted, suggesting that traders may be preparing to re-enter the market. This sudden surge in stablecoin availability could signal a shift in sentiment, as increased liquidity often precedes a rise in buying activity for crypto assets like Bitcoin.
Can Liquidity Drive a Bitcoin Rally?
The recent increase in USDT supply is a promising development, but it remains to be seen whether this will translate into sustained buying pressure for Bitcoin. A surge in stablecoin minting often indicates growing interest from traders, who may be positioning themselves for a potential rally. If this trend continues, it could provide the liquidity needed to support Bitcoin’s upward trajectory.
However, the current market conditions suggest that more liquidity is required to sustain a rally. While the $1 billion USDT minting is a step in the right direction, it is not yet sufficient to overcome the broader challenges of weak demand and reduced ETF activity. For Bitcoin to maintain its recent gains and push higher, a more substantial influx of capital will be necessary.
Conclusion: A Fragile Recovery with Potential
Bitcoin’s recent price surge to $93,684 is a welcome development, but it is not without its challenges. The decline in market demand, weak momentum, and reduced ETF activity highlight the fragility of the current recovery. At the same time, the increase in USDT supply and the recent $1 billion minting suggest that liquidity conditions may be improving.
The path forward for Bitcoin will depend on whether this renewed interest in stablecoins translates into sustained buying activity. If liquidity continues to increase and demand picks up, Bitcoin could build on its recent gains and potentially enter a new phase of growth. However, without a significant shift in market dynamics, the rally may prove short-lived. For now, the market remains at a crossroads, with both risks and opportunities on the horizon.
