According to CryptoPotato, Mechanism Capital partner Andrew Kang has predicted that long-term Bitcoin demand flows for 2024 will be between $40 billion and $130 billion. Kang stated that there is a significant amount of global wealth and income that could potentially flow into crypto, with the global aggregate income being around $52 trillion. With current crypto ownership at approximately 10% globally, even if crypto owners allocate only 1% of their income to digital assets annually, that would still result in $52 billion flowing into the asset class per year and $150 million per day.
Kang believes these estimates are conservative, as allocation is likely higher than 1% for many true believers, and business or institutional flows are not included. Additionally, major sell flows like Mt.Gox and miner emissions are dwarfed by estimated buy flows. ETF inflows are expected to further boost demand, with recent inflows exceeding even the upper bounds of estimates. The total inflow so far for all ETFs is $2.65 billion, according to Farside. Both BlackRock and Fidelity have had more than $3 billion inflows each, with BlackRock estimating an inflow of $150 billion to $200 billion over the next three years.
Kang predicted that Bitcoin's price will not spend much time below $40,000 and will rise to between $50,000 and $60,000 this month, hitting a new all-time high by March. On Feb. 11, Bitcoin analyst Jamie Coutts also predicted that BTC has the potential to reach its previous all-time high pre-halving. Coutts stated that all the extreme leverage and positioning from the fourth quarter has been cleansed for now, with options open interest down 40% and futures funding rates still positive but less exuberant. He also noted that ETFs continue to outpace supply by at least 2:1 and the halving is still months away. The final bullish factor is that only 10% of the volume moved at prices above the current level, with Coutts stating that if BTC breaches $48.2k, there is scant overhead resistance.
