According to CryptoPotato, Jurrien Timmer, the director of global macro in Fidelity’s Global Asset Allocation Division, commented on a potential SEC update on Bitcoin on December 8. He noted that it is unclear if this would be a catalyst for a price surge or not, as current Bitcoin price action does not appear driven by traders speculating ahead of SEC news. Most BTC has been held long-term by 'true believers'.
Timmer observed that the runup in price does not seem to be a wave of speculation looking to front-run any news, due to the small percentage of BTC held for less than 3 months by short-term speculators. However, he revealed that there has been increased interest in Bitcoin futures recently, suggesting some traders may be positioning for an announcement. They could sell futures to buy spot Bitcoin after the news, but this does not necessarily mean it will be a 'sell-the-news' event.
The macroeconomics expert also noted that the macro backdrop has changed from easy liquidity to tighter Fed policy, making the value proposition for Bitcoin less compelling than in 2020-21. He mentioned the M2 money supply, which was growing during the last crypto bull market but has been contracting since the Fed started tightening in early 2022. Timmer described Bitcoin as 'a form of digital gold, with a venture twist' and concluded that spot BTC ETFs will ultimately be a driver of further investment into the asset.
