Key Points:
Into The Cryptoverse founder Benjamin Cowen warns Bitcoin could face a 70% decline in the next bear market.
Previous cycle drawdowns were 94%, 87%, and 77%.
If Bitcoin hits $250K, a 70% drop could send it back near $75K.
Cowen expects Ethereum (ETH) to outperform Bitcoin toward the cycle’s end.
Bitcoin Analyst Cautions Against Complacency
Bitcoin (BTC $117,010) could see a sharp downturn in the next bear market, with Into The Cryptoverse founder Benjamin Cowen warning that history suggests a 70% drawdown is possible.
Speaking with Kyle Chasse, Cowen noted that Bitcoin’s previous bear markets saw declines of 94%, 87%, and 77%. While not guaranteed, he said history “would at least caution us” to prepare for another steep correction.
“I would say maybe a 70% drawdown from whatever the all-time high ends up,” Cowen said.
$250K Peak Could Mean $75K Bottom
Some analysts, including BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, predict Bitcoin could surge to $250,000 by year-end. If such a peak occurs, Cowen suggested a 70% drawdown could drive BTC as low as $75,000 in the following bear market.
He added that if Bitcoin rallies sharply in Q4, he plans to take profits into stablecoins and possibly re-enter in mid-2026.
Ethereum Expected to Outperform BTC
Cowen also expects Ethereum (ETH $4,539) to underperform Bitcoin in the near term but outperform toward the cycle’s end.
“Until the end of the cycle, Ethereum will likely outperform right from now until the end,” Cowen said, while cautioning of October weakness for ETH.
The ETH/BTC ratio has already risen 8.56% in the past 30 days, according to TradingView.
Market Still Split on Bitcoin’s Outlook
Matt Hougan (Bitwise CIO): expects 2026 to be an “up year” for Bitcoin.
Steven McClurg (Canary Capital CEO): sees a greater than 50% chance BTC hits $140K–$150K before another bear market in 2026.
Michael Saylor (Strategy): insists “winter is not coming back.”
Bitcoin is currently up 88% year-over-year, but Cowen warned investors not to underestimate how quickly a cycle top can form:
“No one’s going to be like this is the top. Everyone’s going to be euphoric if we start to see a move up.”
