Key Takeaways
XRP exchange reserves jumped 1.2B tokens in 24 hours, with Binance alone adding 610M.
Futures demand is rising as CME open interest climbed 74%, but price gains lag peers.
ETF optimism lifted XRP above $3, though on-chain signals suggest mixed market positioning.
XRP Reserves Post Rare Surge
XRP (XRP $2.98) recorded one of its sharpest reserve increases this year as major exchanges added over 1.2 billion tokens in a single day, according to CryptoQuant data.
Binance: Reserves rose from 2.928B to 3.538B XRP (+610M).
Bithumb: Holdings jumped by 872M, reaching 2.519B.
Bybit: Nearly doubled reserves from 188M to 380M.
OKX: Surged from just 112,000 XRP to 233M.
Normally, large inflows to exchanges are viewed as bearish signals, suggesting tokens are positioned for potential selling. However, the timing complicates the outlook — the surge coincided with XRP’s $2.73 support retest, a level that has consistently absorbed downside pressure.
Price Action Defies Bearish Setup
Despite the inflows, XRP bounced above $3, climbing 8.43% for the month after softer U.S. PPI data fueled expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut.
Technical signals offer nuance:
RSI and MACD both show easing sell pressure.
The reserve inflows may represent strategic positioning, with exchanges preparing liquidity ahead of a possible XRP ETF decision expected in October.
Futures Market Signals Mixed Positioning
XRP futures trading added further complexity:
CME open interest surged 74% month-over-month, hitting 386M XRP.
Broader futures demand rose 5%, totaling 2.69B XRP ($7.91B).
Monthly XRP futures trade at a 7% premium to spot, suggesting balanced leverage rather than speculative excess.
Notably, a 3M XRP market buy on Binance triggered cascading liquidations over the weekend, briefly adding 10M XRP in net buy pressure within minutes. Yet, despite these inflows, the market absorbed buying with limited upside, showing the depth of XRP liquidity.
XRP Still Lags Altcoin Peers
Compared with August’s double-digit rallies in Solana (+28%), Cardano (+19%), and Ether (+18%), XRP’s modest gains highlight its relative underperformance. While speculation around a U.S. XRP ETF approval (95% odds) keeps sentiment alive, on-chain data shows supply dynamics remain heavy.
If ETF approval materializes, XRP could retest $3.40–$3.60. Without it, the swelling reserves may instead foreshadow renewed selling pressure.
