Key Takeaways
Bitcoin trades near $112,092 but faces resistance below $112K, with traders eyeing potential drops to $100K–$90K.
U.S. CPI and PPI data this week may shape the Federal Reserve’s September rate decision.
Institutional flows are rotating back into Bitcoin from Ether ETFs, but whale selling is raising bear market fears.
Binance futures data shows weakening liquidity and a bearish Taker Buy/Sell Ratio trend.
BTC Price Outlook: $90K Capitulation Risk
Bitcoin started the second week of September under pressure, hovering around $112,092 after failing to reclaim $112K resistance. Traders warn that a capitulation event could push BTC below $100,000, with some analysts even targeting $87,000 if selling accelerates.
Order-book data highlights $106,700 as a key downside liquidity zone, while Fibonacci retracement levels suggest $100,000 remains a critical “line in the sand.”
Macroeconomic Catalysts: CPI Week Ahead
The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) releases this week are expected to confirm rising inflation alongside labor-market weakness. While the market is fully pricing in a 0.25% Fed rate cut in September, some see a chance of a larger move.
Critics warn the Fed has been slow compared with the European Central Bank and Bank of England, both of which cut multiple times in 2025. Recession fears are resurfacing as U.S. construction spending dips — a key warning signal.
Institutions Rotate Back Into Bitcoin
After weeks of inflows into Ether products, institutional capital appears to be returning to Bitcoin. Spot BTC ETFs saw $444 million in net inflows last week, while ETH ETFs recorded over $900 million in outflows.
This shift suggests Bitcoin remains the preferred institutional hedge, especially ahead of volatile macro data.
Whale Selling Mirrors 2022 Bear Market
Onchain data from CryptoQuant shows whales have offloaded over 100,000 BTC in the past 30 days, marking the largest drawdown since mid-2022. This heavy distribution has amplified selling pressure, with analysts warning that whale flows could keep Bitcoin under pressure in the weeks ahead.
Bitcoin’s battle around $112K comes at a critical macro moment, with CPI data, Fed policy, and whale activity all converging. While institutional inflows are supporting BTC, the risk of a capitulation-driven drop toward $90K cannot be ruled out.
