#NFPWatch 🧾 Nonfarm Payrolls: What's the context?
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) measures the number of jobs added or lost in the U.S. economy during the prior month, excluding farm workers, government employees, private household staff, and nonprofit workers .
Typically released at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on the first Friday of each month, though in early July 2025 the release was moved to Thursday,.
📊 Recent data: June 2025 jobs report
In June 2025, the U.S. economy added 147,000 nonfarm payroll jobs, exceeding market expectations (~110,000–120,000) .
Wage growth remained modest, with average hourly earnings up only ~0.2% MoM and around 3.7% YoY, down from 3.9% in May .
🔍 What’s coming next: July 2025 NFP preview
According to Reuters, June’s nonfarm payrolls rose by 147,000, with nearly half of that due to public‑sector hiring, indicating cooling private sector momentum .
Expectations for the upcoming July 2025 NFP report (due Friday, Aug 1 ET) are pointing to about:
115,000 total jobs added
120,000 from private sector
Unemployment rate rising slightly to **4.2%**
Average hourly earnings growth up to 3.9% YoY .
Other forecasters expect a slower pace of around 102,000 jobs, citing signs of a softening labor market .
📅 Calendar & Timing
Report Month Expected Release Date (ET)
July 2025 Friday, August 1, 2025 – 8:30 a.m. ET
The jobs report comes after the Federal Reserve’s FOMC policy decision on Wednesday, July 30, when the Fed is expected to hold rates steady (4.25%–4.50%) .
Also earlier in the week: Q2 GDP, June PCE inflation, and weekly jobless claims are scheduled .
🚨 Why markets care
Fed policy expectations: Headline job growth, wage dynamics, and unemployment trends feed directly into inflation outlooks and rate forecasts.
Markets react fast: A stronger-than-expected NFP figure tends to support the USD, lift equities, and push bond yields higher; a weaker number often has the opposite effect, potentially boosting gold and bonds .
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