Analysts are increasingly betting that the price of
$PAXG gold could double in the long term, possibly reaching $6,000 per ounce by 2028, according to a recent report by JPMorgan.
🔍 Why the Optimism?
The story of gold remains “very simple and clean,” JPMorgan states: as demand grows and supply remains virtually unchanged, the upside becomes significant. ABCSince 2018 gold supply has been largely flat, while central banks and foreign holders of U.S. assets have increased allocations into gold as a debasement hedge. ABCCurrently, retail and institutional allocations to gold sit around ~2.6% of portfolios. If that rises to ~4.6% by 2028 (mirroring past equity allocations), gold would need to climb ~110% from current levels. ABC
⚠️ But the Safe-Haven Status Is Shifting
Despite the strong long-term outlook, some analysts worry that gold’s role is changing from inflation hedge to equity hedge — meaning it now moves in tandem with stocks, which risks undermining its “safe‐haven” appeal. ABC
As one portfolio manager warned:
“Gold is supposed to be a hedge in times of trouble, but it has been going up at the same time the equity market is going up.” ABC
🧭 What It Means for Investors
If allocations shift from bonds to gold, this structural change could fuel a major leg higher in the metal.Keep an eye on portfolio allocation trends, central bank buying, and global macro risks — these are key drivers.But remain alert to the possibility that if equities crash, gold could also suffer if it’s no longer acting as the classic hedge.
$PAXG Gold’s story may be entering a new chapter. While the longer-term path to ~$6,000/oz is building, the metal’s evolving role in investor portfolios and global markets means risk and discipline are more important than ever.
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