For a network often described as the backbone of Web3, Ethereum is facing an uncomfortable reality: 2025 may close as one of its weakest years on record. As of now, ETH is down approximately 13.92% over the past 365 days, and if December closes in negative territory, Ethereum would officially mark one of its most disappointing annual performances — comparable to the deep bear market of 2018.
What makes the situation more striking is the timing. Ethereum has less than 96 hours left to reverse course and avoid finishing the year in the red. Whether it succeeds or fails may shape market sentiment heading into 2026.
At the time of writing, ETH is trading near $2,930, down over 1% in the last 24 hours. Trading volume has dropped sharply by 27.6% to $12.19 billion, a clear signal that traders are stepping back rather than aggressively positioning. Since mid-December, Ethereum has repeatedly failed to reclaim the psychologically important $3,000 level, despite having traded above $4,000 in August and carrying widespread expectations of a move toward $5,000 earlier in the year.
This loss of momentum highlights a growing disconnect between long-term narratives and short-term market reality.
Selling Pressure and Shifting Convictions
Downside pressure intensified after on-chain data revealed that a wallet believed to be associated with Erik Voorhees sold more than $13 million worth of ETH. While individual transactions do not define market trends, such moves tend to weigh on sentiment, especially during periods of low liquidity and declining volume.
Adding to the narrative shift, Samson Mow, CEO of JAN3 and a long-time Bitcoin advocate, publicly confirmed that he has fully exited Ethereum positions to focus exclusively on Bitcoin. Although this reflects a personal investment philosophy rather than a market-wide signal, high-profile exits often reinforce broader doubts during periods of underperformance.
Together, these developments have fueled debate within the crypto community: is Ethereum merely consolidating after years of dominance, or is it losing capital rotation to competing narratives?
A Year of Structural Weakness, Not Capitulation
Despite the negative annual performance, Ethereum’s price action does not resemble panic-driven capitulation. Instead, 2025 has been characterized by persistent underperformance, fading momentum, and declining speculative interest, rather than sharp sell-offs.
ETH’s inability to hold above $3,000 reflects structural hesitation rather than aggressive bearish conviction. Lower volume confirms that many participants are choosing to wait rather than exit entirely — a behavior often seen near transitional phases of the market cycle.
From a historical perspective, years like 2018 demonstrate that extended periods of weakness can coexist with long-term network growth. However, markets tend to price narratives long before fundamentals reassert themselves.
Looking Toward 2026
Despite a challenging 2025, a significant portion of the Ethereum community remains cautiously optimistic about 2026. Expectations center on renewed liquidity, evolving Layer 2 adoption, broader tokenization initiatives, and a potential shift in macro conditions that could benefit risk assets.
Still, optimism alone may not be enough. Ethereum’s ability to regain investor confidence will likely depend on whether price can reclaim key psychological levels and whether capital flows return with conviction — not just hope.
For now, Ethereum stands at a crossroads: either the current weakness becomes a prolonged phase of stagnation, or it forms the base for a renewed cycle in the year ahead.
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