This article was written on November 8th on my Twitter account. It is not an afterthought. Please read to the end.

The theme of the original article is: When might the biggest World Cup market occur?

Because there are a lot of negative news from the outside world that affect prices. For example:

1. CC2 is not as good as expected and may not be launched until after the World Cup.

2. Risks of the market (whenever the big guys in the cryptocurrency circle quarrel, the market will fall. For example, last time Suzhu complained that the ETH gas price was high, which was not conducive to new users)

So at this point in time, I actually doubt whether the World Cup sector can move independently.

So I gave two scripts:

The first scenario: The market can begin immediately, and with the warm-up of Binance and OKX’s World Cup activities, the market will run through the entire World Cup.

But there is a problem: the end time of the World Cup is a well-known brand, and everyone knows the end time. Therefore, as the end time of the World Cup approaches, people's willingness to invest will gradually decrease due to the lack of new concepts to continue to hype.

And no matter who you are, you think that the benefits of the World Cup sector come from the beginning of the World Cup. So the closer it gets to the end, the more people will have a sense of crisis and the more they will sell their chips. When retail investors are selling openly, the banker will pull up a market that belongs to the World Cup. What is the intention of the banker to pull up the market? The banker wants to sell, and retail investors also want to sell, so who will take over?

The second scenario: The World Cup sector will start trading when the World Cup is about to end.

The launch time of chz chain 2.0 is unknown. The official said it will be launched in the fourth quarter of this year. It is currently in the testnet staking stage. If it can be launched at the end of the World Cup, it will be the best solution. After the World Cup, investors will lose their psychological anchor.

Because this World Cup market is no longer boosted by the start of the World Cup, you don’t know when the World Cup market will end.

And the closer it gets to the end, the more investors who were holding on will start to throw in the towel, and finally there will be a panic sell-off. I dare to believe that not many people still believe that the World Cup will still be a market. There will even be more people shorting.

In this market, many people like to look for the right answer by looking at the wrong answer. I prefer to analyze the opponent's psychology and how to maximize the benefits. Some people are desperate and some are shorting, but the story is not over yet. CHZ Chain 2.0 is a brand new story. You are still looking at the present with the perspective of the last cycle. After the main force eats up the cheap chips, it will come back and kill all the empty players. Isn't it wonderful?

As of now: those who believe that the market has ended are still shorting, and those who don’t believe are still holding on. When they no longer believe, the market is not far from starting.

Of course, we cannot rule out the possibility of no market, but I think the probability is relatively small. The unlocking time of $PORTO $SANTOS is relatively late, and the unlocking volume is relatively large. Under the recent low trading volume, I believe that the dealer cannot ship the goods. If there is no other wave of market, the newly unlocked chips will have to wait until the next four years.