In my previous article, I explained that although the FTX incident has delayed the recovery of the entire industry by one cycle, as the year is coming to an end, it is not ruled out that some big dealers will look for opportunities to increase shipments. After all, the expectation of a great depression next year is deeply rooted in people's minds. Everyone wants to make more money in advance and replenish liquidity to cope with the impending crisis.

I have sorted out three reasons why there will be a wave of market at the end of the year:

  • Time: The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 50 basis points in December

  • Geographical advantage: At the end of the year, big players, especially classic tokens, will have the motivation to increase the price of goods, otherwise they will not make any money for the whole year.

  • Renhe: Many projects have a lot of good news to be announced in December.

Let’s talk about them one by one: first, let’s talk about the macroeconomic trends.

As the crypto industry has been in a "waiting for Godot" mood for a long time, in fact, the negative impact of the Fed's interest rate hike has been priced in in advance, and the panic sentiment has been corrected in the continuous "acceptable expectations."

Therefore, when the news of the Fed's 50 basis point rate hike is released as usual, it will not cause too much panic in the market. Instead, it will be beneficial because expectations are met and no unplanned situations occur.

As an aside, although the Federal Reserve has released its December expectations, its terminal interest rate (the final interest rate in the interest rate hike cycle, an important factor for investors in formulating strategies) will definitely exceed the Federal Reserve's forecast in September this year.

In September, the Federal Reserve expected the terminal interest rate to be 4.6%, but by December this year, the terminal interest rate had reached 4.5%. The interest rate hike cycle is far from over, so it is inevitable that the terminal interest rate will exceed expectations. Therefore, although the entire financial industry is bullish in the short term, it is still bearish in the long run in line with future expectations.

Secondly, the motivation of classic tokens to increase shipments.

Many sectors have seen unusual movements recently. For example, LTC skyrocketed some time ago, although the rise in Latiao was related to the expectation of "halving".

LTC will complete its halving in August 2023. As a result, it has risen by more than 30% in the past 30 days, becoming the 13th largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization. In comparison, LTC's performance is much more dazzling, while Bitcoin fell by 17% and Ethereum fell by 15% during the same period.

But it is worth noting that LTC will not be the only coin that will halve at the same time next year. DASH’s halving will even be two months earlier than LTC, but DASH’s trend is not as strong as LTC.

In addition, in the past 7 days, most of the projects that led the rise in tokens were old projects such as WAN (Wanwei Chain), NEW (Newton), DNA (Metaverse), and RIF (Storage).

We can select several tokens as a reference. Almost all projects experienced a sharp drop in May and June this year. Therefore, it is not ruled out that a series of important time nodes such as the World Cup, Christmas, and New Year's Day at the end of the year will be used to lure more investors and facilitate the outflow of large funds.

The third is the benefits that the project itself will release in December. Here, I made a table for your reference.

LINK: In theory, LINK staking brings the highest increase in the price of the currency and the highest FOMO sentiment. As one of LINK's most obvious deflationary means, Chainlink V0.1 equity staking allows stakers to put LINK into smart contracts to guarantee the quality of oracle services.

In the V0.1 staking, the total staking amount will reach 75 million LINK, which accounts for 15% of the current LINK circulation and 7.5% of the total supply.

In other words, LINK has long-tail growth expectations, and LINK will be bullish at least until 75 million LINK fully enters the staking pool.

APE: In April this year, APE launched the AIP-22 proposal in the community, which aims to make ApeCoin the preferred token for Web3 by incentivizing early NFT holders and existing and potential ecosystem participants to participate in activities that benefit the APE ecosystem.

The proposal states that as long as users hold BAYC/MAYC/BAKC, Apecoin will provide these Holders with staking rewards of 17.5% of the total supply of Apecoin in the next three years.

In October of this year, the Ape community voted again to postpone the implementation time of the pledge proposal and announced that the pledge function will be officially launched around December.

At present, it is uncertain whether Ape will be further postponed, but as far as staking is concerned, there are also many pessimistic voices in the market. For example, snapfingers DAO clearly stated in "Discussion on ApeCoin Staking Proposal: Bribery-type staking is meaningless" that this kind of staking and coin-scattering behavior without any landing scenario is meaningless.

But no matter what, the price in of the pledge has already been reflected in the currency price in advance, and Ape has become the only currency among the above-mentioned currencies with an increase of more than 30% in the past 7 days.

The above five tokens are my personal recommendations for holding in the 12-month cycle, and are options with a greater probability of rising expectations. Compared with Sushi, AAVE, and THETA, there is no doubt that the first two LINK and APE with clear staking scenarios are the most valuable to hold.