FIL market analysis/market

Currently, with the recent decline of alt and the new currency sucking blood, fil has fallen below the 4.8 support level and reached 4.4, with the lowest pin at 4.01

Forecast market trend

In the next month, there will be another pin. It has now fallen to the box range at the bottom of the bear market from 22 to early 24. This range is between 2.6-4.8. The situation is not very optimistic, and from the Fibonacci amount from 11.8 to the lowest point of 2.6, it has completely fallen below the quarterly trend correction structure, which is completely a downward trend

But fortunately, the second picture, the annual level trend from June 23 to now, the upward trend line is effective. Although the trend line does not have a support level, I think the entire cottage will soon usher in a change, the shortest is 3 months, and the longest is no more than 6 months

In short, I think there will be a bottom rebound of more than 1-2 times in the second half of the year, so can I buy the bottom now?

The answer is: No, because I prefer short-term trading and contracts. There is no signal of stabilization in the market at present. It is mainly based on two points. The first is a large downward spike (10%+), and the second is that the three K lines behind are accompanied by a strong increase in volume and price structure and stand firm. Both are indispensable. I will also choose to increase my position on the right side here.

In addition, the basic appearance of the market is not good. It is still the old view of last year. With the increasing lack of liquidity, the hot money of crypto funds itself is all on BTC. The unlocking projects led by VC disks are purely for retail investors to take over, and meme mutual competition has led to the only old leeks left in the current market being cut one after another.

It is worth noting that The launch of zksync token raised 458 million US dollars, and the fraud was too high, especially the foundation's second round of financing was not transparent. The biggest difference between web3.0 and traditional finance is that the conditions for traditional companies to go public are very strict. Under the strict supervision of securities regulatory commissions in various countries, false financing and insider trading will not pass the review, but the false valuation/financing phenomenon of web3 projects is extremely obvious. For example, zksync has a financing valuation of tens of billions, but how many people are actually willing to take over in the online market? The FDV valuation model of market makers and institutions is in name only, resulting in the continued bloodsucking of copycats (the wool comes from the sheep), not to mention that there is a layerzero launch at the end of the month!

Summary: Wait patiently and pick up the bloody chips