#币安合约锦标赛 #美联储连续第七次维持基准利率不变
Market summary:
The Federal Reserve interest rate meeting on June 12 and the US CPI data in May have indeed become the dominant factors in BTC's trend last week. Stimulated by the downward trend of CPI data, BTC once again hit the $70,000 mark, but then fell rapidly due to the hawkish remarks of the Federal Reserve. BTC fell 4.32% for the whole week, with an amplitude of 7.44%.
The interest rate cut dot chart shows that most markets expect the interest rate cut to be postponed to the end of the year, and only one interest rate cut will be made in 2023.
Affected by this, the US dollar index rebounded strongly to above 105. Affected by the performance and buyback of technology stocks, the Nasdaq has become a safe haven for long funds, while other markets have repriced based on a rate cut.
If the interest rate cut is really postponed to December as predicted, the volatility of the BTC market may continue. At this moment, $66,000 is the key point of BTC price.
$66,000 is the hosting shutdown price of the median mining machine in the United States, the world's largest BTC mining market, which can be regarded as the beginning of the global miners' clearing.
In the past few rounds of bull markets, each halving was accompanied by the phenomenon of "killing miners", that is, the halving of production capacity income caused miners to not only sell all the BTC produced every day to pay electricity bills and other rigid costs, but also sell part of the inventory of BTC. This often leads to the market falling into a series of declines in a short period of time, that is, clearing.
In this cycle, affected by the US BTC spot ETF, it broke through the high point of the previous cycle before the halving, setting a record high of $73,700. The market is generally optimistic that even if the income is halved, there will be no "killing miners" in this cycle.
Market structure:
Last week, stablecoins had a weekly inflow of $313 million, while the US ETF channel had a weekly net outflow of $580 million. The entire market can be understood as a net outflow of funds.
The profit margin of short-term investors is only 4%. In a relatively bullish cycle, every time the market approaches the break-even line of short-term investors, the market tends to rebound.
In terms of the inflow of US dollar stablecoins, the relatively stable state of the past month continued, with a net inflow of US$313 million, a slight increase from the previous month. However, it is still in the growth slowdown plateau period of the past month.
In terms of the purchase volume of centralized exchanges, there is an accumulation of about US$5.8 billion, a slight increase from the previous month, which is basically unchanged.
