Last time we talked about reducing $BTC from $30,000. But as the market shows, everything is not as we want.

We can assume that the fall from $30,300 to $28,550 has not been realized. This looks like a false breakout. We saw this with the collapse of FTX, after which additional accumulation passed and the trend continued.

It is also worth noting that the price, even from 28,500, is actively growing and is trying to break through the level of 30,300 at which POC is holding us. This volume does not allow the price to rise. Why is that?

The slide below shows that purchases! according to the market! are very rare.

It is undoubtedly a big plus that sales are decreasing (marked with a blue line). Red arrows are a buy market, they are the ones that push the price up. All red clusters are sales. It is important (green arrows) when the price does not go below the red clusters, this means that the price was held, which means the limit buyer is stronger than the sellers.

In general, in the market, we see that the market buyer does not want to raise the price too much. It pays off when the price is somewhere below and volatility is low.

There were much more purchases in March. We have been seeing huge sales for 3-3 months now. Only in August did market sales begin to decrease (a good sign). The purchases, although large, are single. The blue balance line is just beginning to move upward.

This situation, where there are a lot of sales, but the price does not fall much, cannot last long. So is the drop in volume.

We see that a decrease in volume is always followed by a “spike”. The balance here has also been declining for a long time and has begun to grow. We are expecting growth in volumes and strong movement.

FORECAST:

  1. 1- we are considering a situation where the price returns to the range: $29,600 - $31,200

  2. 2- our support is a volume of 28,860 - 29,180 $

  3. 3- main resistance $30,300

    It is very important not to go down from the purple block. We see a POC point here. As soon as the price passes it, we will return to the range. In the long term, the exit will go up by $34,000 - corresponds to the GAP(s) on the CME

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