Space Notes | ETH swaps for Tesla: Do you regret it?

Q. Does investing in Ethereum and Tesla require observing leaders?

A. Ethereum does not rely much on Vitalik's leadership. It is currently on a decentralized, free economic platform. However, under the current free market, free competition, and free combination, it has not actually come up with particularly good applications. Many external teams have brought funds and methods, but have not tried new models, so there are still doubts about the growth space of the entire web3 underlying distributed ledger. (Chensong @mornpine)

Q. According to the Bayesian formula, do you consider re-adjusting your Ethereum position?

A. Bayesian formula: It says that weights are given based on your judgment of new information. First of all, you have to have a basic probability judgment on this matter. When new information comes, you have to judge the importance of this new information, so as to judge to what extent it can affect your basic probability. From the perspective of the long-term, medium-term, and short-term framework, there is actually not much change in the long term. It is just that the political policy in the medium term has changed, resulting in a short-term inflow of funds into Ethereum, but this does not actually change its long-term value, so the passage of the ETF will not change my position configuration. (Chensong @mornpine)

Q. Do you have your own way of dealing with the simplification of information?

A. The reason why I describe this thing with a frame is that the frame gives you the feeling that this thing has boundaries, ranges, and intersections between frames, which makes us realize that this frame is limited. When we talk about frames, we will actively think about whether there are better frames to supplement and support.

Try to do such a psychological experiment: "Suppose you wake up tomorrow morning and your positions are empty, how will you configure your positions?" This thought experiment will help you overcome the obstacles of switching to some extent, and give you a certain emotional push and improve your ability to act.

Q. Where do your deepest feelings about Tesla come from?

A. The two most important points: One is FSD. After having FSD, our entire living conditions and quality of life have been improved. The other point is that few stocks can have such an effect, enjoying growth and providing enough emotional value.