The entire financial market is holding its breath waiting for the US May CPI data and the Fed's interest rate decision tonight. Of course, what is more worthy of attention is Powell's statement on the Fed's interest rate cut expectations after the data.
Currently, the Fed is facing the challenge of tightening interest rate policy, especially after the unexpected employment data released last Friday, the market's expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates have fallen again. The strong job market, especially the recovery in wage growth, indicates that the pace of inflation decline may be slower than expected, which may make the Fed pay more attention to controlling inflation rather than stimulating the job market when formulating policies.
If the inflation data in May continues to be strong, the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates this year will be greatly reduced. This week, attention should be paid to the Fed's interest rate decision. It will hold a two-day policy meeting from June 12 to 13 and publish a summary of economic expectations and interest rate dot plots. This information will become the focus of market attention.
From the current analysis, the Fed's policy determination seems to have strengthened, mainly due to the strong and sustained economic data. The Fed needs longer to assess the economic situation, so the market generally expects that the Fed may only cut interest rates a limited number of times this year, or even not cut interest rates.
It is worth noting that although last week's non-farm data exceeded expectations, the rise in unemployment shows that the Fed needs to avoid overcooling the economy while curbing inflation. This complex economic environment may be one of the reasons why risk assets including Bitcoin have fallen relatively little recently.
Yesterday, Lao Fu made a public reminder (the corresponding timeline is 9:37 am). The article mentioned the crash caused by the release of non-agricultural data last week. It was just a pre-fall before the decline in this bearish trend. Last night, the price of Bitcoin fell from 68,000 to the key support level of 66,000 suggested by Lao Fu, which verified Lao Fu’s recent judgment and indirectly showed that the chips of 69,000-67,000 were loose.
The 66,000 level is the critical point for long and short positions before the data is released. Last night, the net outflow of the Bitcoin ETF was US$200 million. The chips that should be sold at this stage of 72,000-66,000 have been sold almost.
Then the market will be taken over by the data news tonight. The news has not yet been released. Adhering to the responsible attitude, Lao Fu will not predict the short-term trend. If Powell's speech at 2:30 am is hawkish, the market will test the buying power below 66,000. If the speech is dovish and the expectation of a possible rate cut in September is released, the big cake may rebound to around 69,000. (The Tai Chi speech may be larger)
In general, Lao Fu believes that the rebound space is still limited and it is still in a bearish trend. The market needs to be cleaned up to allow more investors to enter the market, which will help the market to reach new heights in the future.
In addition, before the US election, the Fed is unlikely to say it needs to cut interest rates to curb inflation. It is likely that it will continue to be stubborn until after the election.
This year's bull market is an excellent opportunity for swing trading for mainstream coins, but it is a protracted battle for altcoins. By the time the real bull market begins, investors are likely to have changed their minds.
Because inexperienced friends cannot withstand the fluctuating trend of the copycat market.
Every time I encounter a relatively extreme market situation, there are always friends who chat with me privately, hoping that I can say something optimistic. It is difficult for me to be successful because if I am trapped, the best solution is to stop loss, and the best stop loss is a narrow stop loss, that is, you have to exit at the beginning of the decline. If it has fallen by more than 15%, then don't worry, wait for a three-sell point to clear the position or short.
After all, the cryptocurrency market is a high-risk, high-return and volatile market. It is like a mirror that easily magnifies human weaknesses, such as the desire for gain and loss, blind optimism, and loss aversion, which turns people into risk lovers. Most people cannot maintain a good attitude and integrate knowledge and action, so there are actually very few people who can really make money.
It is normal to lose money, but you should still try to summarize. Failure is never the mother of success, but summary is. It is definitely wrong to have a huge retracement in the transaction. Don't always look at those toxic chicken soups for psychological massage.
Only by improving cognition and working hard can you achieve stable profits. There is no shortcut.
That's all for today. If it helps, please like it. Thanks #BTC走势预测 #ETH大涨
