After the PCE data last night, the overall risk market did not react normally. The logic of the first half and the second half were different. In the short ten minutes after the data was released, the first reaction of a force was good for the risk market. The US dollar index fell and Bitcoin rose, but it was obvious that this force was very small.

After the start of the second half, that is, the reaction of Wall Street generally believed that such data was not enough and was not enough to affect the Fed's interest rate decision, so the previous low expectations for interest rate cuts were maintained. Expectations did not rise because of yesterday's PCE data. This is what the Fed wants to see, and it also shows that their constant expectation management is working.

In addition, if you are clear about the release time of the US heavy macroeconomics, you should know what Wall Street is waiting for, because next week there will be a series of labor market data releases, such as job vacancies, ADP employment report, and the most important non-agricultural data. The importance of non-agricultural data is now almost equal to inflation data. Why? Because Fed officials have repeatedly mentioned that inflation data must be seen to decline for at least three consecutive months before it is enough to change policy, unless there is a significant decline in employment, so the market wants to be conservative and stable and wait for next week's labor market data.

The next week will be the FOMC meeting. After this meeting, the dot plot will be released. At that time, the Fed will see the forecast of several rate cuts this year from the dot plot.

The current expected downturn is not a bad thing. It will be easier to have surprises when the time comes. $BTC #美国4月核心PCE指标显示通胀放缓