#BTC 

Technical K-line analysis

1. The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate hike, reaching the highest level, but BTC is an invalid trend with a small amplitude, and the market is immune to the news

2. BTC has been short since July 14th. Most of the coins have been adjusted for 2 weeks. In 4 hours, a pivot has been completed. BTC cannot be analyzed. It can be known that it is not going well now.

3. In an upward trend, altcoins will far outperform BTC. Priority will be given to bullish coins that are still on the daily chart. Now we are waiting for two opportunities to enter the market: 1: BTC's decline will be amplified, and 2: there will be another retracement in 4 hours.

4. The adjustment of altcoins is probably coming to an end. If the spot price falls back in 4 hours, you can cash it out in batches. With the current volatility of BTC, there is a lack of certainty in both long and short positions, so you should be more cautious in operation.

Opinion Analysis

The difference between the trend of US stocks and Bitcoin is a bit exaggerated. The profit effect of A-shares is stronger than that of the cryptocurrency circle. This situation is extremely rare in my 8-year career in the cryptocurrency circle. In the past, the rise and fall of US stocks would affect the trend of Bitcoin, and the magnitude was different but the direction was mostly the same. There are currently two voices in the market: First, the profit effect of US technology stocks has a siphon effect, and a large amount of funds have flowed into the US stock market, while the cryptocurrency circle lacks innovative concepts and is not favored by funds. Only when the US stock market forms a staged top can profitable funds enter the cryptocurrency circle. Second, the ETF applied by BlackRock Fund is unlikely to be approved in the short term. The application is just a statement, and it is still far from being realized.

In fact, both voices are reasonable, especially the siphon effect of U.S. technology stocks, and the fact that some people who choose to deposit interest in banks will choose to invest out after the end of the interest rate hike; at the same time, there is indeed no more attractive positive news in the cryptocurrency circle recently than BlackRock's application for an ETF.

I would like to add that the trend of the U.S. stock market at least represents a change in the global financial investment environment. If I can only choose one of the two for the same amount of money, I might choose the U.S. stock market first; but it is impossible for top traditional institutions like BlackRock not to make a layout in the big pie; this is almost a consensus among institutions and retail investors for the next round of bull market, and returns are not far away; so I really don’t see a bad market; the opportunity to break the status quo will definitely come, and the layout of institutions, whether it is market suppression or capital rotation, is also an opportunity for us