2. Market Recognition#
It took more than a decade for Bitcoin to be recognized by the market. Similarly, it has been nearly ten years since Ethereum was born. Looking back, there are few currencies that have survived in the market for so long and still have a high market value. LTC and DOGE are slowly going downhill, and XRP is even suing the SEC. Ethereum's real rise was in 2016-2017, and it has been more than seven years now. At the same time, the DeFi Summer in 2020 has determined Ethereum's market position, and its position as the second place for a thousand years is basically unshakable. Therefore, people pay more attention to the approval of Ethereum ETF.
But looking back at Solana, it has a relatively short history and has only experienced a 21-year crypto bull market. It is still unknown whether this bull market will fail or whether the next bull market will exist. After all, in the crypto circle, too many mainstream coins have disappeared in the long river of history. A temporary popularity does not mean that they will be popular in the future, such as currencies like EOS. Therefore, Solana still needs time to settle and be tested. It is basically irresponsible to launch an ETF too early.
3. Decentralization
This is also a factor in the impossible triangle. Of course, the degree of decentralization I am talking about does not only refer to the degree of decentralization of nodes and blocks, but also includes the control authority of the network, the degree of dispersion of coin holders, developers who contribute to project code, factors affecting coin prices, or the degree of manipulation. In this regard, Solana actually still needs a lot of improvement. The SEC cannot allow any coin to be listed on the ETF just because it has a high increase in price. The degree of decentralization also represents the influence of the currency in the market to a certain extent.
On the contrary, if a currency's price fluctuates greatly and is greatly affected by factors such as a certain group, this will be detrimental to the approval of its spot ETF. SOL will need several years to perfect this.
4. Futures ETFs or other compliant fund products in other markets
Futures ETFs and compliant fund products in other markets are also important factors in the approval of ETFs. For example, BAKKT launched BTC, CBOE launched BTC futures ETF, and Hong Kong launched ETH spot ETF, which have all affected the views of traditional institutional investors on cryptocurrencies to a certain extent. For example, it is precisely because the United States has a BTC futures ETF that Hong Kong is able to launch a BTC spot ETF. The launch of ETH spot ETF in Hong Kong has increased market liquidity, which will also force the United States to launch an ETH ETF, otherwise they may lose the opportunity.
Therefore, owning a futures ETF is at least a touchstone to test whether market prices are manipulated, which SOL has not yet fully achieved. Therefore, judging from this bull market, the possibility of approving SOL spot ETF is not great.
After Ethereum ETF, from the current situation, there is no suitable next ETF currency. For most currencies, the market still needs to be tested and supervised to prevent "manipulation" and other facilities. For example, token ecosystem construction, decentralization, futures ETF, and investment for traditional institutions, etc., all of which require time to test, rather than choosing whoever has the highest short-term growth rate, because short-term prosperity is only temporary, and only after the market settles down, can we know whether the market is good or not.$SOL Ukisaikai endurance.
