#以太坊ETF批准预期 #ETH

Space Notes | "Is there still hope for Ethereum?"

We talked about Ethereum last Friday. On April 30, the Ethereum spot ETF was listed in Hong Kong. Some people believe that this is a sign that cryptocurrencies are moving towards the mainstream, but on the other hand, the SEC has been delaying the launch of Ethereum spot.

Today, Bloomberg analysts raised the probability of approval of the spot Ethereum ETF from 25% to 75%, which also triggered a rise in market sentiment and a rise in coin prices in the short term.

[Key points summary]

🎙️ Lijia Twitter @davidhornhouse

The BUIDL fund is used by BlackRock to help companies manage the treasury. Simply put, it tokenizes short-term U.S. debt. Each BUIDL token represents one dollar and is equivalent to cash.

Published on the Ethereum mainnet, its current redemption mechanism is that if you hold a dollar of BUIDL funds, you can transfer between banks and redeem U.S. dollars off-chain, and you can also open a stablecoin redemption mechanism on the chain later.

A major pain point of traditional finance is that cash and assets are diverted to different tracks. For example, money and cash are in the banking system and are regulated by the Banking Act; stocks and bonds are in the securities system and are regulated by the SEC; commodity futures are regulated by the CFTC. When so many processes are integrated, there must be an audit, so the friction between the different ledgers of the entire transaction is very large, which is why blockchain and digital currency are created.

The biggest innovation of the BUIDL fund is that it puts assets and cash in the same ledger. If it is on the chain, it will cut off a lot of middlemen and save a lot of costs, and its programmability and transparency far exceed traditional finance. The key point is that BlackRock knows how to do it in a compliant framework.

Whether it is a gorilla asset or a monopoly asset, when its price performance is accompanied by a decline, many of its fundamentals will be questioned.

🎙️Zhen Dong Twitter @zhendong2020

Ethereum definitely still has a chance, especially in the entire smart contract track. Its leading position and everyone's trust in it are obvious to all. There are still a large number of transactions or applications and various innovations.

But from the perspective of supply and demand, the biggest problem at present is that there are more chains or block spaces that can provide similar services as Ethereum, so Ethereum faces great competition on the supply side;In terms of demand, there is no innovation that is eye-catching, generates huge wealth growth, or external increments.

If we only look at the current monopoly direction of Ethereum, it is still a very important target, carrying a lot of transactions, but the increment of new transactions in the future is not so clear, because it currently has many competitors, and its demand has no new direction in the future, and there are no particularly obvious events or signals.

🎙️Peicai Li Twitter @pcfli

If you pay attention to the increase in ETH in the short term, on the one hand, you will pay more attention to whether a large category of assets on its chain suddenly becomes active. Once active, it will bring transaction fee income to the chain, which will also form a better support for the price of Ethereum; on the other hand, it depends on whether Ethereum has application scenarios and whether it has grown. Both levels may bring potential benefits to Ethereum.

For Tesla, what matters more is whether the revenue grows and whether the cash flow itself has increased. For the software business, what matters more is whether the subscription volume of FSD has increased. As the standard for future autonomous driving, its enhancement will make Tesla the leader in the electric vehicle field, thereby driving the sales of Tesla vehicles. There are also financial services and robotics, which are much faster than Ethereum, and there are not many events on Ethereum that can generate cash flow and income.

🎙️Odyssey Twitter @OdysseysEth

In a sense, the market or large institutions can support Ethereum's future application scenarios, but Ethereum still lacks an ecosystem like an operating system.