From February 28$BTC It has been 79 days since the first breakthrough of the $60,000 mark. Judging from the distribution structure of chips on the chain, some subtle changes seem to be taking place.
When we compare the URPD data from April 27 to May 17, we can find that the early low-cost chips in the top five price ranges have decreased by a total of 110,000 pieces (the green framed part). Most of these chips have been traded to the price range of 60,000-67,000 US dollars (the blue framed part). In short, low-cost chips are sold at high prices, and funds are constantly buying in this range.
After these days of turnover, the chips in the 60,000-67,000 range have accumulated more and more, and currently there are 2.59 million chips, which is much larger than other major price ranges. This is a very positive phenomenon. From the perspective of chip structure, the thicker the price range, the more sufficient the turnover, and the more support it can play.
How to correctly understand the supporting role of price range?
In fact, it is not accurate to say "support", but it should be understood as "resistance" and "stickiness". When the market price wants to leave this range, whether it breaks through or falls below, it will encounter "resistance" because this is the average cost area of short-term chips. In a bull market, most people will choose to lie flat when the cost is broken, and in a bear market, most people will choose to cash out when the cost is broken. This is the source of "resistance".
"Stickiness" means that even if the price leaves the range in the short term, as long as the event does not continue to generate fission, the price will slowly return to the range, as if stickiness has been generated. Unless a large amount of turnover occurs in other price ranges, resulting in the digestion of the previous chip accumulation area, then the "stickiness" will disappear.
In the articles over the past few days, I have been trying to use data to verify the current$BTC The price is suppressed by emotions, not by lack of funds. Although I don't know how long this adjustment will take? But as long as there is no deep drop, and the decline is replaced by a horizontal trend, it is the most ideal situation. And from the current trend of the distribution of the chip structure, it has increasingly met the foundation for realizing this "ideal situation".
We can see that the small huge volume column around $66,000 actually appeared on April 27, and it has not been digested until today, which shows that the chips here are very firm. Even if BTC falls back to $56,000, it has not been shaken, and once it rebounds back to this range, it will continue to buy, so that a thick and wide safety cushion has gradually formed in the 60,000-67,000 range. It has more and more characteristics of a staged bottom range! As long as there is no serious deviation from expectations and events that hit sentiment at the macro level, the current trend will continue.$BTC The possibility of a deep drop will only become smaller and smaller.
PS: From the data, the next chip accumulation area in the current range is 41,200-43,400 US dollars. In other words, assuming there is a deep pullback, this is the most likely position for resistance. But I personally think that the probability of a pullback to this is very small, even less than 1%.
