BTC's time, place, and people

Now the blockchain community is particularly divided: the BTC ecosystem is playing with inscriptions, "construction", and L2; the ETH ecosystem is playing with Restaking, nesting dolls, and modularization; the non-EVM public chain is issuing airdrops, grabbing traffic, and playing with MEME; everyone is playing their own thing, and it seems that there are fewer and fewer intersections. In contrast, in the last two bull markets, everyone in the circle would FOMO for the same thing, the Defi Summer of the last bull market; the ICO of the last time.

Simply hyping inscriptions cannot support the narrative of a bull market, because big capital cannot enter; restaking cannot support the narrative of a bull market, because it is not a narrative innovation; grabbing traffic is even less likely to support the narrative of a bull market. But the BTC ecosystem can. Why can BTC do it? To use an old saying of our Chinese: because the BTC ecosystem is at a stage where the time, place, and people all support it. (See the picture for details)

Time: Economic environment supports ecological explosion-US stops raising interest rates; Bitcoin ETF passed; BTC output halved

Locality: Technical foundation supports ecological explosion-Taproot upgrade + BitVM release; RGB protocol and BitVM two carriages

People and harmony: Traffic and funds focus on ecological explosion-Inscription Rune ecological explosion brings attention

The new capital, new traffic, and new gameplay brought by the BTC ecological explosion seem to be the most likely narrative to support this round of bull market. In 2016, an article on fat protocol and thin application laid the foundation for the investment strategies of many investment institutions and individuals and made a lot of profit. The release of BitVM filled the last piece of the puzzle for the explosion of BTC ecology. The emergence of BTC L2 scheme with more users should be the best proof, right?

Some people may ask: Why do we need to build smart contracts and ecology on BTC, an old antique? Why not do it on ETH with better infrastructure? To answer this question, we may not need to focus on technical issues, but on the perspectives of "funds" and "traffic". For funds and people who have not entered the circle, the volume of BTC is much greater than that of ETH. Based on this alone, the BTC ecosystem has the basis of "narrative".

What is the biggest difference between playing the BTC ecosystem and the ETH ecosystem? How should we play?

1 Pay attention to the "community"

The community of the BTC ecosystem is the real Builder. They spontaneously build the ecosystem, speak out, and even CX. Compared with the players in the ETH ecosystem who are now called "electronic beggars", they are truly valued by the project party and also enjoy the benefits brought by the development of the ecosystem. Therefore, they will stay with the project for a longer time.

2 Pay attention to "fair launch"

Compared with the current ETH ecosystem's project parties; VC; exchange groups, data contribution by the wool party, and secondary market harvesting routines, the BTC ecosystem pays more attention to the relative fairness of chip distribution. Allowing the community to get cheap chips and continue to build is a common pattern of the head inscription ecosystem we see now. We will find time to analyze the project party's ability to control the market.

3 Analyze the "pattern" of the project party

Even if we are optimistic about the BTC ecosystem, this ecosystem is still mixed with good and bad, and there will definitely be RUGs and group friends' entrepreneurial projects, so it is particularly important to pay attention to the project party. The pattern is a bit metaphysical, and it depends on one's own opinion. Let's take a small example to illustrate: there are project parties willing to refund participants who have ruined their projects. This behavior may prove that the project party has a pattern.

Let's deduce the possible scenarios that may happen next:

1 BTC L2 is launched one after another, and a large number of hundred-fold coins, thousand-fold coins, and even ten-thousand-fold coins appear, attracting everyone's attention.

2 A large number of newcomers and ETH players begin to enter the BTC ecosystem to pan for gold, and chickens and dogs rise to heaven.

3 Group members' entrepreneurship and RUG projects began to appear in large numbers, and market sentiment began to cool down.

4 ETH ETF passed, ETH began to follow the K-line trend after the BTC ETF passed, and players returned to the ETH ecosystem.

5 BTC ecosystem native smart contracts were launched. Under a sufficiently safe and decentralized situation, miners and Old Money were activated to enter the BTC ecosystem for financial management, and the BTC ecosystem value reached 1/10 of the BTC market value.

6 After the bull market entered a frenzy, profitable players distributed chips, the market began to stall, and the ecosystem with practical application value survived and became infrastructure in the next bull market.

Written at the end:

This article is some of my feelings after studying the BTC ecosystem recently. I have no intention of FUDing ETH at all. I also hold a large position in ETH. ETH is trying to find its next narrative, and I hope AI+WEB3 can have a good result. There has never been a life-and-death struggle in the currency circle. The most likely thing is that we all have a bright future. But each bull market will have its characteristics. I hope everyone can catch up with the main rising wave!