Each halving is a severe challenge for miners. They must complete the computing power upgrade before the halving so that they can seize the opportunity in this bull market cycle. In order to purchase higher-configuration mining machines, miners will sell some BTC on the premise of sufficient profit to obtain more abundant cash flow.
Judging from the data of the recent difficulty adjustments, although the difficulty is still rising, the growth rate has begun to slow down significantly, and has passed the rapid growth period from July 2023 to February 2024. This shows that in order to cope with the halving in April this year, the miners' computing power layout has been basically completed.
It can also be seen from the miner wallet balance data that miners gradually sold BTC from $33,000 to $71,000, and stopped this behavior after the end of March. Therefore, the impact on BTC prices in the future may exclude the potential factor of "miners" and be more influenced by emotions, liquidity and macroeconomic factors.
From the perspective of funds in the circle, the growth rate of the stablecoin market value has slowed down significantly since the end of March. But even so, it still maintains a total scale of US$150.3 billion today, and the BTC price is around US$63,000. Compared with the top stage of the previous cycle, when the BTC price reached US$67,500, the market value of stablecoins was only US$128.9 billion.
From this perspective, the direct impact of the current reduction in net liquidity in the US dollar market on BTC is not very obvious. It is more about the uncertainty of investors about the Fed's expectations for rate cuts and the concerns about the deep impact of the US economic recession on the risk market. In the short term, such sentiment suppression is expected to continue.
