To put it bluntly, it is about long-cycle trading. I have emphasized it many times in previous articles. Here, I will explain it to you from another perspective.
Let’s first talk about the recent hot event, Ark and BlackRock’s application for a Bitcoin spot ETF.
According to the SEC's previous response time for such applications, it is generally within 180 days and no later than 240 days.
According to this latest time point, the SEC will give a reply at the latest in February 24. It is worth noting that Bitcoin will be halved in May 24, and the relationship between the two is very subtle.
There are only two possible outcomes: success or failure.
For me personally, my views on the two results of success or failure are:
1. Passed. After a brief charge, the market started to fall, a very bloody fall, and then rose steadily. Some people say, why is there such a big positive news and still crash the market? What's the fuss? In fact, this is very common and normal. Otherwise, everyone is focusing on the negative and positive news to make transactions. The positive news leads to a unilateral rise, and the negative news leads to a unilateral fall. Isn't this a bit naive? Another point is that the news has a strong lag. The approval of the SEC is a positive, and the changes it brings to the currency circle will gradually emerge in the subsequent market trends.
2. Rejection. Of course, in the short term, it is still a waterfall, a very large one. Why? This has to do with the cycle of Bitcoin, including the SEC approval, which can also be explained by this point: From a technical perspective, before the Bitcoin bull market starts, there needs to be a bottom. If this bottom is close to the low point of this round, 1.5, then for the Bitcoin large cycle K-line indicator, it is a perfect double bottom. I think this is very necessary.
Suppose that in February next year, the SEC rejects BlackRock's application for a Bitcoin spot ETF, and Bitcoin breaks out of a large double bottom of 1.5-1.8, and then with the halving in May, the bull market begins. After being rejected, BlackRock applies again, and it is approved in 25 years, and with the external environment (the Federal Reserve is very likely to release money in 25 years), a real violent bull market will begin. Isn't this more exciting?
Some people also say that everyone thinks that the next 25 years will be a bull market, so will it really be as everyone thinks?
I have experienced this, so I can say with certainty that although knowing is one thing, there will be absolutely pessimistic events before the bull market starts, which will make most people afraid to buy and prevent them from integrating knowledge and action.
For example, many people now see things more clearly, such as the 25-year Bitcoin bull market. They also think: At the end of this year or the beginning of next year, Bitcoin will plummet and they will buy the bottom and go all in. But if it really comes to that time, when you open the exchange, it will be all red, and the outside world will be full of unfavorable news about the cryptocurrency circle, and most people will do the same thing. It can be described as the saying that those who are involved are confused, while those who are on the sidelines can see clearly.
Many people are right now. Before the halving time comes, they are actually outsiders and bystanders. When the time comes and they need to operate by themselves, they will be the ones involved. This is a test of themselves. It is still the unity of knowledge and action.
During the 312 event, I called on people to buy at the bottom, but the most common phrase in the cryptocurrency circle at that time was: the cryptocurrency circle is about to end.
I don’t know exactly when that special time point next year will be.
But three years later, I might be able to say that on a certain day in 24, I told people to buy at the bottom. #荣耀时刻