In the context of increasingly significant political polarization, the lingering cloud of economic recession, and severe divisions in public opinion, the next presidential candidate of the United States will have a crucial impact on the direction of national politics. On the other hand, with the transmission of high inflation, the intensifying trade war, and the collective development of economies, we also need to pay attention to the U.S. election as to where the global economy will go.
On November 5, the 2024 US presidential election will be held as scheduled. Judging from the current situation, it is no surprise that the US president this year will be between the 81-year-old Democratic representative Biden and the Republican representative Trump, who is known for his crazy talk. In order to win votes, both will launch high-profile campaigns to elaborate on their political intentions and electoral promises, covering economic, demographic, gender, education, military and other issues.
However, unlike in the past, the crypto market has rarely become one of the hot topics in this presidential election.
Not long ago, Trump suddenly stated that he would accept cryptocurrencies as campaign donations and encouraged voters who support cryptocurrencies to vote for him. "President Joe Biden doesn't even know what cryptocurrency is. If you like any form of cryptocurrency, if you support cryptocurrency, you'd better vote for Trump."
This is not the first time Trump has shown his support for the crypto space. As early as December 15, 2022, Trump announced the issuance of 45,000 NFTs through TruthSocial, a social media site he founded, with a starting price of $99 per piece. Users who purchase 45 digital trading cards will receive a ticket to have dinner with Trump.
Judging from the current party attitude towards cryptocurrencies, the majority of Democrats, led by Biden, are cautious about cryptocurrencies, especially after the collapse of FTX, the Democratic Party has become more determined to regulate it strictly. A clear sign is that Gary Gensler, the chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission, who is criticized by crypto practitioners today, is a long-term donor to the Democratic Party and served as the chief financial officer during Hillary Clinton's 2016 presidential campaign. The Democratic Party's position is clear. The majority of Republicans, led by Trump, perhaps in order to highlight the difference in political views and attract votes, have rarely shown an inclusive attitude towards cryptocurrencies.
In fact, although encryption only occupies a very small part of the entire election process, it does not mean that it is not important. On the contrary, these small but highly divisive issues may have a greater impact on voter support.
According to an online survey commissioned by DCG and conducted by Harris Poll in early April, cryptocurrencies have a strong voice in several key swing states such as Arizona, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Data shows that about 18% of voters in these states (or 3.4 million people) hold digital assets. In 2020, Trump lost by a narrow margin in these swing states.
Perhaps for this reason, since the election officially kicked off in January this year, many candidates have expressed their support for encryption. In addition to Trump, US presidential candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. (nephew of former President John F. Kennedy) is also a staunch supporter of encryption. "Cryptocurrency is our outlet for the Federal Reserve's addiction. It is the best hedge against inflation. It deprives the government and the monopoly banking system of control, which uses money printing to transfer wealth to billionaire oligarchs while impoverishing ordinary Americans. If you agree that cryptocurrency equals freedom, please help me advance this vision as president."
Although it seems that the party's support rate has soared, it is worth noting that there are not a few presidential candidates who are trying to gain support in the election. Take Trump as an example. His attitude towards Bitcoin in 2019 was completely different from what it is now. He once said on a platform: "I am not an enthusiastic supporter of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Cryptocurrencies are not currencies. Their values fluctuate greatly. They have no physical support. They are virtual and unregulated. These factors make cryptocurrencies useful for illegal activities, including drug trafficking." However, in 2021, Trump reiterated his personal opinion, saying that "Bitcoin looks like a scam. I don't
Like it because it's another currency that competes with the dollar."
However, just a few years later, Trump completely transformed into a supporter and follower of the crypto market, wanting to make NFT great again, and even made a sarcastic remark about an 80-year-old man's inability to use crypto software proficiently.
One of the main reasons for the rapid development of the crypto industry in the United States is the rapid expansion of its market. In 2022, 9.6% of American adults own cryptocurrencies, while this figure was only 0.6% in 2015. After the approval of ETFs, more Wall Street institutions have also entered the crypto market. Data shows that 11 ETFs have absorbed $52 billion in assets. Looking at the United States, the US government holds more than 200,000 bitcoins in on-chain custody, worth more than $6 billion, making it the primary digital asset held by major governments around the world. In addition, the crypto market itself embodies resistance to censorship and control, which is highly consistent with the current situation of highly divided American society, diverse ideologies, and huge gaps between the rich and the poor. In addition, due to its natural financial advantages, even in some third world countries such as Nigeria and Ethiopia, the support for cryptocurrencies has surpassed traditional fiat currencies.
However, it is worth noting that for candidates, the crypto market is merely a tool, a way to represent voters’ support, and they can appropriately show their support when necessary, but even after the candidate who has declared his support in advance takes office, he may face other pressures that lead to policy changes. After all, compared with the traditional financial system, the crypto market only accounts for about 1% of the financial volume, which is far less valued than issues such as welfare and education that have a wide impact. From this perspective, the attention of various parties to the crypto market is only temporary.