I analyze a detailed article about #ETFvsBTC #btc scenarios towards the answer: How much will $BTC peak in the distant future? I will analyze based on personal opinion through the 3 scenarios stated in the 3 arrows as shown in the image:
1. Blue Arrow Scenario:
I am using the pitchfan indicator for a long-term BTC chart showing the price path and possible BTC price target according to PLan A (what I call the green scenario). Accordingly, BTC will be able to reach the threshold of the Super Wave Cycle with a peak of $300-350k.
The necessary condition of this cycle that we have is wave 2 with the peak of 75k$ in the last wave, the sufficient condition here is the correction of BTC to the 40-44k$ area as I mentioned [user]. If you understand this, you will want BTC to come to this area to test], I evaluate this 40k$->>75k$ area to serve PlanA.
2. Red Arrow Scenario:
$BTC follow the red arrow scenario, which I call Plan B for short.
That means BTC will move from the (current) bullish $60k area to a new peak of $150k by the end of this year, and stop there and decrease in price in the next 4-year cycle. This is said to be the plan of many traditional analysts in the Crypto market with the concept of Bulllish in Having.
All the necessary and sufficient conditions for this plan are in place, however, facing the current economic context in the second quarter of 2024, I do not appreciate whether there is a driving force that can push the price of BTC away like this scenario.
3. Black Arrow Scenario:
Among the countless scenarios for $BTC , I always pose a risky situation for this market because it is still considered a bubble.
The occurrence of a bad scenario I call PLan C
When BTC moves according to the black arrow, it means that the crypto market is caught in a sharp decline due to the impact of the concept of global economic recession, collectively known as Black, Gray, and Brown Swans.
At that time, the complete escape of BTC back to the area below 30K$ or even 20K$~15k$ [old bottom] was inevitable. I'm not sure there's a situation where BTC will reach a negative limit when the bubble bursts. But we should all have to make a reservation for that situation because the person who holds the largest amount of BTC is Satoshi. Information Is Vague.
I'm shinjiNc, long-term BTC analysis for all reasonable people who can imagine a part of what you are investing in? and where it will go in the future to have a proper investment plan.
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