Is it far away before Bitcoin halving enters a countdown bull market? Bitcoin halving occurs every four years, and the specific time is uncertain. At present, the next halving will be on May 9, 2024, which is 319 days away. Let’s look back at the past halving cycles. The first halving occurred in November 2012. The lowest point occurred 357 days before and the highest point occurred 371 days after that. The total lasted 735 days. The highest increase from the halving was 104 times. The second halving occurred in July 2016. The lowest point occurred 546 days before and the highest point occurred 518 days after that. It lasted a total of 1071 days. The maximum increase from the halving was 40 times. The third halving occurred in May 2020. The lowest point occurred 518 days before and the highest point occurred 546 days after that. It lasted a total of 1071 days. The maximum increase from the halving was 7.5 times. We can see the similarities: 1. The lowest point always seems to appear before each halving, and it always occurs between 1 and 1.5 years; 2. The high point after the halving appears between 1 and 1.5 years; 3 .Before the halving, there are basically opportunities to hit the bottom twice or even multiple times, and the intervals between bottoms vary; 4. Before the halving, there is basically a calf market, with the increase ranging from 6 times to 4 times at the beginning, and then to 3.5 times; 5. Once the halving begins, there will be no chance for a second dip, and it will continue to rise all the way. You can see the similarities are:
1. There always seems to be a lowest point before each halving, and it always occurs between 1 and 1.5 years;
2. The high point after the halving occurs in the period of 1-1.5 years;
3. Before the halving, there are basically opportunities for a second dip or even multiple dips, and the intervals between dips vary;
4. Before the halving, there was basically a calf market, with the increase ranging from 6 times at the beginning, to 4 times, and then to 3.5 times;
5. Once the halving begins, there will be no chance for a second dip, and everything will continue to rise. So if history really repeats itself according to simple rhymes, in terms of operations, we have the following conclusions:
1. The current price is not far from the top of the calf before the halving market is predicted;
2. If 15,000 bits are used up, there is a high probability that there will be an opportunity to buy again;
3. Facing the next halving market, if the target choice is Bit, the imagination of the increase will not be too high, and it may be near the previous high;
4. A second dip may occur in the first quarter of next year, when the Russian election takes place; so if history really repeats itself in simple rhymes, in terms of operations, we have the following conclusions:
1. The current price is not far from the top of the calf before the halving market is predicted;
2. If 15,000 bits are used up, there is a high probability that there will be an opportunity to buy again;
3. Facing the next halving market, if the target choice is Bit, the imagination of the increase will not be too high, and it may be near the previous high;
4. A second dip may occur in the first quarter of next year, which is when the Russian election takes place; Bitcoin was born due to the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis. Since then, the United States has continued to print money, starting a bull market for U.S. stocks that has lasted for more than ten years. , the S&P 500 has increased 6.5 times since the low in 2009. Compared with before, there is still a lot of uncertainty:
1. The United States has not stopped raising interest rates. Although it has suspended interest rate increases now, it is expected that there will be two more interest rate hikes this year;
2. Whether U.S. real estate can land smoothly is still unknown, and the banking crisis is still there;
3. The international situation has changed dramatically, and the Russia-Ukraine war continues;
4. The domestic macro-economy is not clear, and the potential impact of China’s short-term RRR cut and interest rate cut has not yet emerged;
5. As the currency circle becomes larger and larger, the increase in each round becomes smaller and smaller;
6. After institutions entered the market in 2020, the correlation with the Nasdaq Index became higher and higher. Some people even regarded Bit as a technology stock in the US stock market. When looking at Bit in the general cycle of the US stock market, even if there is a big release in 2020 , the increase does not seem to be high;
7. The narrative of the next round is not yet clear (Which of Web3, Metaverse, Gamefi, Layer2, AI, NFT, cross-chain and other sectors will be the main narrative line driving the next round of rise remains to be investigated).
It is difficult to predict the future. Historically, we have always moved forward with a mentality of crossing the river by feeling for stones. Looking back on past cycles, the bull market in the currency circle has always been inseparable from the three elements of policy + liquidity + narrative. At present, None of these three elements are met. In this regard, for those who want to achieve a class jump by relying on the currency circle, they must have a rich knowledge system and respond to the market with a long-term perspective. It is not advisable to carve a boat and seek a sword, but it is the last word to live a long time.
This article only expands from the two dimensions of Bitcoin and US stocks. From the perspective of US dollar liquidity, on-chain data, each round of narrative and copycat performance, there will be opportunities to continue to explore in the future. Even if we are desperate, there are always some similar influencing factors. It will be worth your reference to speculate on the new rather than the old. Compared with most markets, this market still has huge room for imagination.
History will not simply repeat itself, but the same rhyme will appear. Whether this is really the case can only be verified in the future.
