On the macro level, affected by the non-agricultural employment data that was lower than expected, the US dollar index continued to be under pressure, and the Nasdaq continued to rebound rapidly and is expected to hit a new high this week. Powell did not elaborate on the latest statement on monetary policy, but judging from the current economic situation, if the Fed does not change the interest rate in September, there is a high probability that the interest rate will be cut by the end of December. Now the market has adjusted its expectations from one interest rate cut to two interest rate cuts this year. I estimate that market liquidity will start to improve in the second half of the year, and the earliest will be in the third quarter.

Regarding ETFs, the total inflow was US$217 million yesterday, and Grayscale GBTC had a net inflow of about US$4 million for the second consecutive day. Hong Kong Ethereum ETF has maintained a single-day net subscription for 4 consecutive trading days. Yesterday, the net subscription was 999 ETH, and the total holding of Ethereum is currently 17,280. (Hong Kong crypto ETF supports the spot subscription and redemption mechanism. Net subscription means that the difference between the subscription amount and the redemption amount within a certain period of time is positive, that is, more buying than selling, and vice versa. Net redemption).

The SEC has postponed its decision on the next steps for Invesco Galaxy's Ethereum ETF, setting its next deadline to July 5, 2024 to approve or disapprove the proposed spot Ethereum ETF, according to a filing on Monday. The SEC said it was appropriate to designate a longer period for issuing an order approving or disapproving the proposed rule change to allow sufficient time to consider the proposed rule change and the issues raised therein. Judging from the current progress of events, the possibility of Ethereum spot ETF passing in the short term remains extremely low.

"Summary of the Manuscript of the Bitcoin L2 Founder Discussion Before the Hong Kong Conference" Jeff said that Merlin Asset's bridge entry and exit were not well prepared, too many assets exceeded control, the user experience was greatly reduced, and the selling pressure of airdrop users was too large. In the first six months, users received airdrops and sold them; BMAN suggested that Chinese projects exchange coins after TGE and organize Chinese Bitcoin Ecological Fund; "Everyone dislikes Chinese projects, and then Chinese people dislike their own Chinese projects", and they are viewed under a microscope by users, exchanges and various VCs. I'm not looking at Merlin under a microscope. To be honest, the current version of Merlin is really average, and the user experience is poor. The main reason is that after Bitcoin is transferred to Merlin, people will feel like their coins have entered a black box, which makes them feel very insecure. From my personal point of view, unless Merlin undergoes a very big change in the future, I am unlikely to use Merlin again.

According to Binance Research, the total market value of cryptocurrencies fell by 11.3% in April. TON and BNB showed relative resistance with a 1% increase and a small drop of 1.4% respectively; Merlin Chain grew the fastest among the top ten public chains, with a TVL of more than $1 billion; the protocols worth noting are Pendle and Hyperliquid, with Pendle TVL exceeding $5 billion and cumulative trading volume exceeding $15 billion, while Hyperliquid TVL exceeded $435 million; four of the top five NFTs in terms of trading volume in April were based on Bitcoin. PENDLE is still optimistic.

DeFiLlama data shows that the trading volume of Solana on-chain DEX on May 5 was $1.097 billion, surpassing Ethereum to rank first. In addition, the trading volume of Ethereum on-chain DEX yesterday was $998.67 million, ranking second; the trading volume of BSC on-chain DEX yesterday was $482.09 million, ranking third. Ethereum is still the first public chain in the universe, there is no doubt about that. But Solana may be the main narrative of the public chain in this round of bull market. In the current market, among all the public chain ecological projects, only the SOL one has the best performance.

On the chain, the VDD indicator is rapidly falling and cooling, which indicates that the "old currency" has stopped moving on the chain, and the first large supply in the bull market has ended.

In terms of market conditions, the market adjusted and stepped back as expected. Yesterday, Bitcoin went up and fell back, but the good point is that there was no supply follow-up today, and a stop signal appeared at a small level. Up to now, the trend of Bitcoin at a small level is still healthy. After the opening of the U.S. stock market tonight, the market will show a more realistic supply and demand relationship. Now Bitcoin is still on the right side of the "bottoming out" confirmation trend. It does not necessarily have to go above 6w, but it cannot break 6w. If it breaks, it may cause the bottom to fail. In terms of the large-scale trend, it is still expected to rise in relays. Continue to hold positions and wait patiently for new trends to emerge.

ETH linkage trend

As for the altcoin, there is still no hot spot in the altcoin. This adjustment trend will be more favorable for the future market. There must be a freezing point of emotions, no money-making effect for a long time, and a long-term oscillating trend, before the bottom will be polished out. You can continue to build positions as planned, ignore short-term trends, and do long-term things.

Fear index 68