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The concept of a bull market in the cryptocurrency world
Before discussing how long the cryptocurrency bull market will last, we should first understand the concept of a cryptocurrency bull market. A cryptocurrency bull market refers to a stage in which the price of a digital currency rises, especially a stage in which the increase is large. When the price of a digital currency rises by more than 20%, it is usually considered to have entered a bull market. The characteristics of a cryptocurrency bull market are rapid price increases, rising investor confidence, high market enthusiasm, and a substantial increase in market value.
Factors behind the bull market in the cryptocurrency world
The duration of the bull market in the cryptocurrency circle is related to various factors, such as market demand, policy control, technological innovation, community activities, etc.
1. Market demand: The rise and fall of digital currency prices largely depends on market demand, especially the mentality of investors. If the market demand is strong and a large amount of funds flow into the digital currency market, the price will naturally rise. On the contrary, if the market demand is insufficient, the price will also fall. Therefore, market demand is one of the important factors that determine the duration of the bull market in the cryptocurrency circle.
2. Policy control: Policy control also has a great impact on the digital currency market. Different countries and regions have different policy controls and different attitudes towards digital currencies. Some countries have taken strict regulatory measures on digital currencies, such as banning ICOs and shutting down digital currency exchanges, which will lead to a short-term decline in the digital currency market. Some countries have adopted integrated policies on digital currencies, such as allowing digital currency trading and promoting digital currency payments, which will drive the rise of the digital currency market. Therefore, policy control is also one of the important factors affecting the duration of the bull market in the cryptocurrency circle.
3. Technological innovation: The digital currency market is a market driven by technological innovation. With the continuous advancement of technology, the development of digital currency is also accelerating. For example, Bitcoin uses blockchain applications. The emergence of this technology has made digital currency more secure and decentralized, leading the rise of the digital currency market. Therefore, technological innovation is also one of the important factors affecting the duration of the bull market in the cryptocurrency circle.
4. Community activities: The community of the digital currency market is also very active, and the impact of street activities, discussions and promotions on the digital currency market cannot be ignored. For example, some communities have launched promotion activities for digital currencies, which will attract more people to master digital currencies, thereby increasing market demand and prices. Therefore, community activities are also one of the important factors affecting the duration of the bull market in the cryptocurrency circle.
5 Signs Before the Cryptocurrency Bull Market
The five major signs before the bull market in the cryptocurrency circle are the continuous emergence of good news, the unusually active circle members and addresses, the market starts to rise, the emergence of bigwigs, the constant meetings, the decrease in project parties, and the entry of funds. The following is a specific analysis:
1. Good news continues to emerge
Whether it is a bull market or a bear market, good news is an important factor in the improvement of the market. If there is continuous good news, you should pay attention to it, which means that the overall market of the industry is on an upward trend, and investors should understand what kind of news it is, about which aspect, about which project or type, and confirm whether the news is true or false.
2. The circle of people and addresses is extremely active
Especially in the long-dormant social networks and telegram groups, more and more people suddenly came out to talk about the market, or the circle of friends was also analyzing and discussing, which was very unusual compared to the past. BTC or ETH addresses also began to become active, or many new addresses were added, and frequent transactions occurred.
3. The market starts to rise
This is the most intuitive omen. The increase may not be very large in the early stage, and there may even be a slight decline, but it is obvious that the overall market is rising, and it will soar as long as the opportunity is right.
4. The boss appears and the meetings continue
Referring to the bull market last year, to exaggerate a bit, anyone with a little influence in the cryptocurrency circle is an investment tycoon and expert, and the WeChat Moments are filled with updates from cryptocurrency celebrities and promotions of various offline large-scale events. Before the bull market came, the "tycoons" all showed up and started to exert their strength.
5. Fewer project parties and more capital entering the market
The current market has already achieved this. After market baptism and government supervision, most of the inferior projects have been eliminated, and the remaining ones are mostly high-quality projects and potential projects. With fewer projects, more funds will be invested, and each project will be able to obtain more funds, so that it can better maintain the community and improve technology, and truly implement applications.
How long does a bull market in the cryptocurrency world usually last?
The bull market in the cryptocurrency world generally lasts for several months or even several years. Therefore, it is impossible to give a precise answer. According to historical records and market analysis, the bull market in the cryptocurrency world generally lasts from 6 months to 2 years. For example, from the end of 2016 to the beginning of 2017, the price of Bitcoin rose from less than 1,000 US dollars to nearly 20,000 US dollars, and the bull market lasted for more than a year. In early 2019, the price of Bitcoin gradually rose from 3,000 US dollars to a high of 14,000 US dollars in June. The bull market lasted for nearly 6 months.
The duration of the virtual currency bull market is affected by many factors. First, changes in market demand and supply are important factors in determining the duration of the bull market. When investor demand exceeds the supply of virtual currency, the price increase trend may last longer. In addition, the global economic environment, policies, regulations, media reports, etc. will also have an important impact on the virtual currency market.
Investor psychology also largely determines the duration of a bull market. When cryptocurrency prices rise, investors tend to become greedy and hope to catch the last train of the bull market. However, once the market adjusts, sentiment can quickly change, and investors rush to seek profit opportunities, leading to the end of the bull market.
Dogecoin’s decline signals an impending bull run
Ali Martinez, a well-known analyst, believes that Dogecoin’s recent correction is a precursor to a bull rally.
Historical data shows that corrections in 2017 and 2021 preceded sharp increases, hinting at Dogecoin’s behavioral pattern.
Dogecoin’s current correction reflects past cycles 0 which can herald the start of the next bull run.
Ali Martinez, a well-known crypto analyst, recently shed light on Dogecoin’s interesting price behavior, suggesting that its recent correction may just be a precursor to a larger rally.
Martinez, who is well-known in the cryptocurrency market, believes that Dogecoin’s decline is not a cause for alarm but a sign of an upcoming bullish rally that echoes patterns observed in previous market cycles.
Drawing attention to historical trends, Martinez highlighted Dogecoin’s past price corrections, particularly in 2017 and 2021, which were followed by stunning bull runs. In 2017, a significant 982% surge was preceded by a 40% retracement and in 2021, an even more significant 56% retracement paved the way for a staggering 12,197% gain. Martinez believes this pattern shows Dogecoin’s tendency to undergo corrections before entering a phase of explosive growth.
Now, in 2024, history seems to be repeating itself. Dogecoin has once again broken out of a descending triangle pattern and experienced a 47% correction, reminiscent of previous cycles. Martinez stressed that this correction is likely to trigger the next bull run for Dogecoin, bringing potential opportunities for investors seeking substantial gains.
Currently, Dogecoin is trading at $0.12833, up 3.58% on the day, showing resilience as it aims to recover from recent weekly and monthly declines. As the eighth-largest asset in the crypto market, Dogecoin's price action continues to attract market participants, and Martinez's insights provide a glimpse into the potential future trajectory of this popular meme-based cryptocurrency.
How to make trend profits in this bull market?
1. In October 2020, BTC started the main upward trend from 10776. On November 25, it touched the 17-year high of 19484 for the first time, warning of a pullback adjustment. In December, it completely broke through the 17-year historical high, predicting the next rise until the pullback adjustment in January 21.
2. In February, the price started to rise again. At this time, all currencies except BTC (including ETH) started to explode in January or February of 2021, which is very typical. For example, the platform currency BNB is in February, the game leader Axs is in January, the L1 sector Sol, Avax, and Matic are in January, the meme leaders Doge and Shib are in January, the metaverse boss Sha is in January, and the dex platform currency Uni is in January. However, there is ETH here. Although ETH rose in November and December, the rise was also in January. I will not give examples of the others one by one. You can explore it yourself.
3. As mentioned before, the outbreak of altcoins was in January, so let's take a look at the data of long-term BTC holders. On January 1, 2021, the number of BTC held by long-term holders was left over for sale. To put it bluntly, BTC overflowed with funds until the long-term holders' selling slowed down or even stopped selling. Then the BTC price moved further to the left, from more than 40,000 in February to more than 60,000 in May, and then the altcoins mentioned above. Needless to say, the trend from February to May.
4. Looking at the present, you can think that it is very similar to the first high of 69,000 on November 25, 2020. But what we see is that the meme sector in the cottage has risen sharply, but there are also very few others that have pulled up. The situation of most of the cottage sectors exploding together did not occur. Why? There is too little overflow funds, and the price has not stabilized at the previous high. Long-term holders are just selling their BTC a little bit, and there are still a lot left. It is necessary for BTC to at least stabilize at 69,000 or above in the near future this month, and quickly achieve a sharp rise to 80,000, 90,000 or even higher in April, May, and even June, and long-term holders can sell their products.
5. So combined with all the current macro, fundamental, on-chain data, and news, do you think BTC can be realized in the next three months? It can really be realized at present, and there is plenty of time for you to ambush. Remember the previous mention, the breakthrough of 19,000 in December 2020 to 40,000 in January 2021, the cottage only broke out in January, so there is time, now everyone can observe, is there a trend coming? Which cottages can be paid attention to, etc., in addition to the existing principle of speculating on new and not old, what new and higher-level ones can be paid attention to. If BTC cannot be realized in the past three months, then there will be more time.
How can a novice play in the bull market
1. Develop an investment thesis
Cryptocurrency investing is one of those things in life where you need to have a thesis. It doesn’t have to be long, original, or ironclad. But without one, you run the risk of wasting money and time in the market with no guidance.
2. The most important thing is to suit yourself
Scrolling through the crypto social media landscape, you’re greeted by a variety of flat avatars, and it’s easy to forget that the people behind these accounts are of all ages, with all kinds of life experiences, each with a different story, and each with different financial resources.
All of this is to say that in the next bull run, you may see people around you investing large amounts of Ethereum into the “next big coin” or “next big NFT,” which may trigger your FOMO and you may be tempted to try to follow the trend and invest more Ethereum than you can afford.
Don’t do it! Respect the different stages you are in your investment journey, and realize that accumulating your crypto assets is a marathon, not a sprint. By taking a methodical approach, rather than a reckless one, you will reach your goals.
Invest according to your financial capabilities and only invest on a scale that is suitable for you.
3. DCA is your friend
In the crypto space, prices can fluctuate wildly in a matter of minutes, and double-digit percentage changes in a single day are not uncommon. For newcomers, this can be both exciting and nerve-wracking.
Rather than trying to time the volatility, batch cost averaging (DCA) is a common and reliable strategy.
The DCA method involves committing to buying a specific asset, such as ETH, BTC, SOL, etc., for a fixed dollar amount at regular intervals, regardless of their price. Rather than trying to enter the market at the "perfect" moment, you spread your purchases over a period of time, which can be weekly, biweekly, monthly, or any other interval that fits your investment plan.
By spreading your purchases out, you reduce the risk of buying at highs, and even if you start investing at highs, subsequent purchases during the lows will average out your entry price. DCA also removes the emotional element from investing. You don't have to constantly try to predict where the market is going next, which can lead to rash decisions out of fear or greed. Instead, set a plan, stick to it, and watch your investments over time without constant monitoring or second-guessing.
4. NFT as a leveraged bet on Ethereum
By investing your Ethereum in select NFTs, you may be able to take advantage of the bullish momentum in the NFT market in the hope of realizing higher returns on Ethereum when you later sell your NFTs, a classic buy low, sell high strategy.
That’s easier said than done, right? And many NFTs shouldn’t be viewed as just financial instruments that can be flipped. However, in many cases, flipping is possible when the entire market is rising.
The idea here is the potential for incremental returns. This is because the price fluctuations of NFTs can be large, with significant price appreciation potential. Therefore, the returns gained by investing in NFTs (if you choose the right NFT at the right time) are relatively There may be an increase in holdings of Ethereum. This strategy is worth considering for newbies, but again I caution against treating every NFT as a flippable object, some are, but not all!
5. Know your tools
Sometimes, when visibility is limited, pilots have to “fly by instrument,” meaning they can only rely on their mastery of the aircraft’s resources to navigate. So when I say “know your tools” here, I’m metaphorically suggesting that you practice and personally use all the crypto applications available to you in order to gain proficiency in the Web3 toolbox.
This process will not only drive your progress on your personal “crypto skill tree”, providing you with experience and mastery, but it will also start to feed back into your application in other strategies, such as what your overall investment thesis is, how you do tranche cost averaging, which NFTs you buy, etc.
In other words, learn about the projects that are here. Understand what they offer, how to use them effectively, what challenges they face, etc. In this way, you will gain wisdom that will further enhance your investment approach.
6. Don’t ignore taxes
In a bull market, people make a lot of money, which is taxable income. When the next bear market starts, the value of their assets drops significantly, but the tax burden they incurred in the previous bull market years is still high.
So, what’s the big point? If you don’t set aside some of your gains in good times and prepare for taxes, you could get hit hard in bad times. More cryptocurrency investors than you think have experienced this, and I’m one of them.
On the other hand, one tool in your toolbox to combat this is to strategically lock in capital losses. Selling assets at a loss during a bull market year can help offset the taxes you would have paid on a profit. This tax-saving strategy is called tax-loss harvesting, and it allows you to minimize your overall tax liability so that the tax burden is not overwhelming.
7. Maintain a work-life balance
The cryptocurrency space is a non-stop market, without the closing bell of traditional financial markets. At times, it can also get very chaotic. This constant experience can easily turn into a vortex that pulls you away from other aspects of your life. The frenzy of a bull market can lead to overwork and burnout.
That said, prioritizing your peace of mind and taking a step back regularly cannot be overemphasized. Setting specific times for market analysis, trading, and portfolio management is one way to ensure you don’t overdo it and create balance.
Additionally, “disconnecting” from time to time can provide new perspectives when you reengage. It’s easy to get caught up in the minute-by-minute drama, intrigue, price swings, etc. However, if you also invest in taking breaks, you’ll be able to see all of this with greater clarity.
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