Crypto is still a few conditions away from a big bull market:

1. The Fed releases money. In essence, we are all making money from the Fed's monetary bubble. M2 and Bitcoin price cycles are clearly positively correlated, as shown in Figure 1.

2. The next innovation cycle of blockchain technology. Bitcoin prices are related to the four-year halving cycle (see Figure 2), and the internal logic is mainly supply and demand. However, to have a violent bull market and drive btc.d down to below 40% or even lower, it still depends on the funds and attention brought by technological innovation.

3. New incremental markets. Incremental markets include new trading targets and new trading venues. ETFs bring potential incremental growth in the US dollar market and institutional markets, while the incremental purchases of retail investors in non-US dollar markets still depend on new models and new venues. The new model is just like the previous GameFi gold-making studio in Southeast Asia. Is the new trend now the decentralization of AI/DePin computing power? Or other models?

The rise of new trading markets similar to FTX is superimposed on the innovation of Uni on the chain. At present, the rise of new trading venues has not yet been seen.

The big bull market may not come this year or next year, but in the next cycle. This cycle may become a "transitional bull market" in which only Bitcoin rises.