First, let’s look at the miners’ indicated price. At the bottom of the market at the end of 2022, BTC was very close to or even exceeded the miners’ shutdown price. As shown in Figure 1, the shutdown price of the current mainstream mining machine S19pro is around $43,000 at a cost of $0.08 per kWh.
The second is the time bottom. The Fed's rate cut expectations have been lowered from -170bp at the beginning of the year to -30bp at present. Many people even think that the Fed will not cut interest rates this year and may even raise interest rates by 25bp again. See Figure 2
But according to Figure 3, if the Fed does not cut interest rates, based on the current rate of deficits and applying current interest rates, the annualized interest cost will reach $1.6 trillion by the end of 2024, which is unbearable.
In my opinion, the Fed may cut interest rates in Q4 this year, but it should not be in December as the current market mainstream, but before December at a black swan time point. After the rate cut, mainstream assets will attract a peak of liquidity, which will make BTC try to touch ATH again.
Based on technical analysis, it took five months for BTC to form a golden cross after its last monthly death cross, and five months before that as well.
Therefore, my personal prediction is that BTC will start to rebound in October this year, with the lowest point at 43,000 ± 10%.
