According to CME Fed Observation, the probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points in July to a range of 5.25%-5.50% is 92.4%, and the probability of suspending interest rate increases is 7.6%. The Federal Reserve will announce its July interest rate decision at 2:00 a.m. on July 27, and then Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference.

After the release of U.S. data, U.S. interest rate futures priced in the possibility of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in November.

It can be said that the Federal Reserve's monthly interest rate hike is a certainty. With high interest rates, the circulation of the US dollar will inevitably be poor. There is a high probability that the bull market that everyone is looking forward to will not occur for the time being. Even if there is an increase in July, Hua Ge believes that the market will reach the top and then peak.

Important news overview:

1Threads has more than 10 million registered users within 7 hours of its launch:

2. Decentralized social network Bluesky completed $8 million in financing;

3. Foreign media: FTX plans to postpone the sale of its Japanese subsidiary FTX Japan;

4. BlockFi’s bankruptcy plan was opposed by FTX, Three Arrows Capital and the SEC;

5. UK Finance: Tokenization could add billions to the UK economy;

6Coinmerce: Binance will withdraw from the Dutch market on July 17, 2023;

7. Binance will deactivate existing deposit addresses in the third quarter. Affected users are advised to obtain new deposit addresses:

8. The digital asset registration platform of Beijing Data Exchange was released, and Lingjing, Shuyuan, Hongyuzhou and others became the first batch of issuing platforms.

Everyone please join the new group. The market is good recently and the teacher will arrange skyrocketing coins in the group.

BTC：

Yesterday, Bitcoin broke through a strong wave, reaching the upper edge of the shock box at 31,500, and then fell back, bringing down mainstream coins and altcoins. This is in line with Hua Ge’s judgment that the overall price is fluctuating between 29,500 and 31,500. The probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in July is more than 90%. If it breaks through 31,500 and rises sharply before the July rate hike, it will be the time for us to reduce our positions in batches. If it does not break through upward but falls below 29,500, Hua Ge believes that the market in July will be dangerous, and we must reduce our positions to avoid risks.

eth:

Ethereum once again fell back to the 120-day moving average to stop the decline and rebound. If it does not fall below the 120-day moving average, there is still an expectation of a rebound. Once it falls below the 120-day moving average, the market will be over.

BCH：

BCH's view remains unchanged. It is highly likely that it has reached its peak. The strong rebound now is an opportunity to reduce positions.

ARB：

The position of arb needs to be observed. Is it building the right shoulder or is it always weak? It is not a good time to participate now. It will take time to observe and verify.

LTC:

The LTC pin is inserted quite deep, which exceeds expectations. The trend of Litecoin this year is characterized by many adjustments. Litecoin below 100 can still be bought at low prices. There is less than a month left before the production cut, so it should rise again. From a structural point of view, this is also a 4-wave adjustment. It is recommended to hold the spot and wait and see.

ETC：

The structural trend of etc is not much different from that of ltc. etc is also a doomsday chariot. Generally, there will be another wave of relatively large pull-ups at the end of the market. It is recommended to hold the currency first.

Platform Coin:

bgb is really rubbish. It doesn’t even pull up the price when issuing new coins. Pay attention to the 0.47 support. Sell if it falls below.

Wealth code:

Agix has not seen any increase due to any positive factors, so it is recommended to sell it in batches when it rebounds.

There is no problem with the overall trend of sxp. Today's rebound strength is far greater than that of Bitcoin. This is the performance of a strong coin. Hua Ge recommends holding it above 0.36. In the event of a sudden pull, you can take profits in batches at highs.

The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice!