Swords are coming! The market value of DOG•GO•TO•THE•MOON has reached 492 million US dollars! Its counter-trend rise has driven the entire#Runemarket to pick up. I believe you are most concerned about three questions: 1. I hold airdrops, when should I sell? 2. I have not participated before, should I enter the market? 3. How should I judge Runes and MEME? Today I bring you the most comprehensive analysis of $DOG price trend judgment on the entire network.
Before understanding runes and MEME, I would like to put forward a view that goes against the mainstream: the only scarce resource in cryptocurrency is attention. NFT/runes emphasize the scarcity of quantity, with a total of 1,000/10,000 pieces, but this does not mean anything. There are 12,000 runes and countless NFTs on different chains. They can all have a scarce number of issuances, but after going through bull and bear markets, capital will eventually return to value, and assets that can outperform Bitcoin are always a minority.
The simplified price of a coin or NFT floor is nothing more than a formula of supply/sellers and demand/buyers changing over time. The only variable that affects supply and demand is attention! In a bull market, the impact of attention is infinitely magnified, and a short-term shift in attention will immediately be reflected in market valuation changes! Therefore, the best strategy in a bull market is to find assets that are about to cross the attention gap and become popular from unpopular. For example, $WIF, which has risen 10,000 times.
Projects can be divided into the following matrix based on their own technical route/team quality and whether they attract a lot of attention. Among them, Beta is the best asset for ordinary, long-term investors, and can steadily follow the rise of the market, such as $SOL. If you want to obtain excess returns, you need to find "Alpha" that has not received enough attention or even changed from "locked-in" to "retail investor trap", which also means short-term arbitrage opportunities.
Rune Sunshine airdrop is not a new way of playing. The $SOS coin in 2021 did the same thing. It was a third party that purchased historical airdrops based on the NFT of opensea users, which quickly gained the attention of the entire market. Moreover, it has no products, no fundamentals, and is purely speculative, just like the current rune. After receiving the airdrop, users will face three choices: ① sell; ② continue to hold to see if it will take off; ③ go to the secondary market to buy more chips.
If there are enough people who choose ② or ③, the price of the coin will naturally rise, and the rise will attract more attention from the market. At this time, outsiders who have not played OpenSea also have two choices: ① Buy; ② Wait and see or ignore. Those who choose ① will make the price of the coin soar further. As the price of the coin rises, more and more people will sell the airdrop, and $SOS has no new narrative and cannot continue to attract market attention. In the end, the followers will only be limited to the holders and will never be able to break out of the circle.
So the question is, can we quantify the market's "attention"? $WIF is a good teacher. Combining its coin price with various indicators, we can find that these three "attention" indicators are highly positively correlated with the coin price performance. ① Number of holders; ② Number of new traders per day; ③ Percentage of whale transactions. An increase in the number of holders, a greater number of new traders per day than existing traders, and large purchases are all positive signals that push the coin price to ATH!
Therefore, we can measure the characteristics of each stage of the MEME life cycle as follows:
① Early growth: The number of holders and trading volume increases sharply, and the number of newcomers’ transactions is greater than that of existing ones.
②Continued rise: The number of holders continues to rise steadily and reaches important milestones, whales participate in transactions, and the daily transaction volume of newcomers continues to be higher than the existing
③ Reversal callback: The number of transactions by new holders decreases, existing traders dominate, prices begin to become unstable, and whales begin to sell
So what stage is $DOG in? When holders are faced with three choices, how should they choose? In terms of market value, it ranks 11th among MEME coins. According to Geniidata data, the transaction volume of the entire rune market in the past 24 hours was 17.9 million US dollars, and the transaction volume of $DOG was 11.34 million US dollars, accounting for more than half of the entire rune market! Although there is some gap with MEME of the same market value, this data will increase rapidly after it is listed on the top CEX!
As for the number of holders, the total number of $DOG holders is currently 72,417, which is not much different from the 74,000 people who received the airdrop. Since $DOG is an airdrop reward for rune holders, it is different from other general MEMEs, and the initial holding base is relatively large. You can refer to $SOS. What is different from it is that most of the current $DOG holders choose to wait and see or increase their holdings, which is the basic foundation for the stable rise of the $DOG coin price.
The most critical part is whether the attention of $DOG has reached an extreme value, so that people outside the circle have fully understood $DOG and made the following choices: ① buy; ② wait and see or ignore? This can be seen from the indicators of social media. For example, $BRETT, which ranks behind $DOG in market value, has an interaction index of 3.79 million, and there are millions of KOLs who have publicly mentioned this currency on Twitter, which is enough to spread its influence to many corners.
Judging from the above indicators, $BRETT has at least made a big step forward from "not popular" to "popular". Let's talk about $DOG again. Its current interaction index is only 810,000, and the person with the highest number of followers who mentioned $DOG on Twitter is still @LeonidasNFT himself. It can be seen that compared with $BRETT, $DOG's coverage is far from the stage where most people outside the circle have made a choice.
It is worth mentioning that when a currency reaches its peak, it does not necessarily mean decline. For example, the reason why BAYC and CryptoPunk can maintain their position despite the emergence of so many NFTs is that the fundamental reason lies in the comprehensive community welfare and the holders are constantly creating value for the community. They always maintain the level of "good projects" and a high level of attention, which gives them the capital to cross the bull and bear markets.
The value of $DOG comes from the culture of the ordinarys community. It is an airdrop to#Runestoneholders, and#Runestoneis an airdrop from the early OG of the ordinarys community. The success of Runestone has represented that the community soil for $DOG to grow is a fertile field. The funds etched on the rune position No. 3 come from the community's 13.5 BTC donation without return, which shows the strong cultural consensus of the community.
In summary, $DOG is still in its early stages in terms of both trading volume and community influence. In the context of large-scale airdrops, the number of holders remains stable, which shows that it is still in its early growth stage. As the first MEME on Bitcoin, it naturally has a sense of topic that attracts attention. Coupled with the price consensus of at least 1 billion, it still has great potential. Unless there is a turning point in the number of holders, the number of new traders, and the community influence, it can still be held.
Summary: In a bull market, you need to pay attention to valuation. Finding projects with breakthrough signs in the four quadrants of "Beta, Alpha, retail investor trap, and locked-in disk" is the secret to making quick profits. By judging the number of holders, the number of new traders per day, whale transactions and other indicators, you can invest more methodically. As the first Bitcoin MEME, $DOG's trading volume, attention, holders, etc. are all in the early stage, and we can still expect further surprises!
