This year, we need to continuously pay attention to the trends in gold prices! In a normal economic cycle, gold is inversely related to the US dollar index and real interest rates, but this year, gold and real interest rates have both risen, which is quite strange!

However, if we look at all the events together, we might find some clues:

- Gold has surged, along with real interest rates.

- Janet Yellen (Secretary of the Treasury) is visiting China again.

- Antony Blinken (Secretary of State) is about to visit China.

- Recently, many Asian countries have seen a collapse in currency exchange rates.

- Bitcoin has surged this year, reaching new highs before the halving.

- Japan has raised interest rates, but the yen has not increased and has instead depreciated.

Looking for answers in history, the biggest reason behind this strange rise in gold this year is the crisis of credit currencies led by the US dollar.

Among many credit currencies, the US dollar is the most reliable. Therefore, when there is a crisis in currency credit, funds will not only flee to gold but also flow significantly into the US dollar, causing the dollar index to rise.

This year, the RMB has depreciated, the yen has depreciated, the won has depreciated... Asia is a hard-hit area, and other places are not much better off. During Blinken's visit to China, I blindly guess that both sides have to reach some cooperation to jointly address the crisis of credit currencies.

As for Bitcoin, since the ETF was approved, it has followed the same rising logic as gold; it is not about the intrinsic value of Bitcoin/gold itself, but rather that the denominator, 'dollar,' is experiencing problems.

If the issues with the dollar escalate, whether it is gold or Bitcoin, there may be a wave of increases this year that no one can imagine.

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