Bitcoin is not very attractive above 31,000, and will continue to maintain the elevator market in the short term. The trend of $ETH is still mainly linked to Bitcoin, and the probability of it being stronger than Bitcoin in the future is still high. The reasons are as follows:
1/ The US consumer confidence index and new home sales data in June were both higher than expected. This indicates that the US economy is very strong. However, this good news did not produce a significant linkage effect in the cryptocurrency circle, and the cryptocurrency circle is not related to the US stock market trend.
2/ Stablecoin funds are outflowing, and there is a lack of large funds to take over. For speculative funds, the attraction above 30,000 is limited, and the probability of a short-term correction is greater than an increase. Institutions expect futures delivery to be carried out below 30,000, which is a high probability event
3/ Bitcoin’s market value exceeds 50% of the cryptocurrency market. Although it is resistant to decline, its future growth space is limited and it cannot rise several times like small currencies. The greed index is 62, rising instead of falling, which is not a good thing.
4/ However, according to the situation of Grayscale Trust GBTC, the discount rate has narrowed significantly, indicating that some funds expect that spot ETFs will be able to pass in the future, and the positive expectations in the medium and long term still exist.
In summary, the recent market situation is characterized by the fact that the cryptocurrency market is not related to the US stock market, and the price above 31,000 is not very attractive to speculative funds, and the probability of a correction is greater than an increase. However, the medium- and long-term positive expectations still exist, and it is necessary to pay attention to the specific situation of each project.