I have written about this topic before, and I thought I’d write about it again today.
Yesterday I met an old friend from an investment bank. He entered the market last year and lost 3 million in a few months. At that time, I advised him to leave the contract. A few months later, he borrowed money to enter the market again. When I advised him the second time, he had already lost 8 million. At that time, he was so disgusted that he said he wanted to leave the gambling table. Now a year has passed, and he has lost 14 million. (Updated on October 6, he has lost 17.2 million...)
Here I want to say that contracts are not suitable for 99.999% of people. The contract masters you see in your field of vision are just survivor bias, just like you often see those successful entrepreneurs broadcast by the media, thinking that successful people are everywhere, but you never know how many failed entrepreneurs are buried in the years.
Many people think that they work hard and can make money in contracts, but people should know themselves. Just like God gives many people five years of repeating their studies, they still cannot get into Tsinghua University or Peking University. Even if God gives you more opportunities, if you don’t understand the truth and don’t have the talent, it’s just a waste of money and time.
Remember, this does not mean that people who are good at studying will be good at playing contracts. The investment banker I mentioned earlier, as well as many top students around me, all fell into a deep sea once they entered the gambling table, and ended up losing a lot of money and giving it away.
Why are contracts difficult to play? Because contracts are gambling. Many people feel unwilling to accept the loss after playing contracts. The more they lose, the more unwilling they are to accept the loss. The more they play, the more they lose. The most fatal thoughts are: I fell here and I must stand up here; I am unwilling to accept and I must win back my money; this is my only chance to turn things around.
These are fatal thoughts, really, fatal. After touching the contract, many people begin the long journey of making their money back, and even when they know it is impossible to make their money back, they still get deeper and deeper into the trap.
It is not shameful to admit that you don’t know how to play with contracts, but it is truly shameful to play with contracts and bring your life and even your family into trouble, which is truly shameful.
Many contract players who have suffered heavy losses feel that they can only turn things around here, but I want to ask: Why do you think you can turn things around here? Have you really thought about why you can't make money here?
In the beginning, there were only spot transactions in the cryptocurrency circle, and then there were contracts, 20x leverage, 100x leverage, and now even 1,000x leverage. There are also American options, European options, and all these new things. Many people think that they have increased their ways to make money, but in fact, all of them provide you with more opportunities to lose money.
Why is it difficult to make money with contracts? Because there are too many strategies to choose from. From a spatial perspective, spot is just a simple one-dimensional space-time: you make money when it goes up, and lose money when it goes down. Only simple strategies can be used. When it comes to contracts, it becomes a multi-dimensional space-time: you may lose money when it goes up, but you may make money when it goes down. Combined with the concept of margin liquidation, contracts have successfully become a three-dimensional existence. What is the operation of three-dimensional? Go buy a Rubik's Cube and have fun with it. There are too many permutations and combinations.
So the difference in difficulty between playing with goods and contracts is like the difference between playing Tetris and playing Rubik’s Cube.
Maybe some people say that I often advise people not to touch contracts because I don’t understand contracts. On the contrary, because I understand this thing too well, I know that contracts are not suitable for most people.
Who is suitable for playing contracts? For example: those who can go to bed early and get up early every day, and only need to check the market occasionally; those who can review the market frequently and truly grow in the review; those who can open and close positions with a clear mind and restraint, without being happy with gains or sad with losses.
These are just some of the characteristics. It does not mean that those with these characteristics can do every transaction well, but most people can’t do it. People who are good at playing contracts will not do too badly in their daily work. Even if these people do not come to the cryptocurrency circle, they will do well in other industries. Many people can’t even do their daily work well. Why do they think they have enough ability to make money smoothly in the cryptocurrency circle?
Once many people suffer huge losses in contracts or options, they feel unwilling to accept the loss and want to get their money back, but they don’t know and are unwilling to admit that they really don’t understand the rules of the game to make money, yet they continue to torture their wallets.
Please put your stubbornness and unwillingness into an industry where you have an advantage and work hard, rather than putting it in a contract that you may not be able to control. How much money a person can make depends on his understanding of the world. Conversely, how much money a person can lose also depends on his understanding of the world.
Some people say that in this bull market, they see many contract players making a lot of money, but they don’t seem to have excellent and restrained character.
But what I want to say is that it is because the time is not long enough. Most people can make money in the bull market, and many people think that this is their trading ability. They can open contracts ten times or a hundred times and go anywhere. In fact, this is like a novice can drive easily on the highway, but the real test of technology is on the country roads when the road conditions are complicated.
Many people, after getting used to the smooth highway of the bull market, think they are already experienced drivers, until the market repeatedly switches between highways and country roads, causing them to doubt their lives, until they suffer huge losses that collapse the worldview they have built in the past.
In the past few years that I have been in the cryptocurrency circle, I have seen various emerging stars and experts in every bull market, but after experiencing one or two rounds of bull and bear markets, they basically disappeared in the crowd.
If a person can continue to make profits in the trading market after experiencing several rounds of bull and bear markets, he is a truly qualified trader.
Many excellent traders are lonely. They can be clear-minded and make decisions easily even in a noisy environment. Just like Chairman Mao went to the noisy environment of the vegetable market to study in order to train his concentration, so that he could still be clear-minded in a messy environment.
A good actor has to give up his own personality to act well in a play. Similarly, a good trader needs to give up all his joys, sorrows, anger and happiness and turn himself into a calm person in order to make every decision in his hand.
The older generation likes to deposit money in banks, which is the most reliable investment in the eyes of the older generation. Many young people are dismissive of the older generation’s depositing money in banks until they put their money in p2p, contracts, and futures and lose all of it, then they finally understand the older generation’s painstaking efforts, which is their responsibility for their hard-earned money.
Finance will not create wealth. There are too many people in this world who are coveting the money you have earned through hard work. If you are not familiar with the various new things in the market, the speculative market will only be a place for you to give money to the rich. If you do not lose money and you are not affected by inflation, how can financial institutions pay their employees and how can financial giants drive yachts?
Finance is a series of scams. You have to intervene when the scam starts and withdraw before the scam is exposed. Whoever persists to the end will profit from the scam.
Well, I wish all the players who have suffered heavy losses in contract options to recognize this market, this world, and themselves as soon as possible, and use the money they have earned from hard work to do things that they are confident in and within their knowledge. $BTC #比特币减半 
