Actually, I wanted to name the title [Contract Dogs, Please Take Care of Yourself], but then I thought that this statement is quite hurtful to dogs, so I gave up.

Today let’s talk about contracts…er…people.

1. The Nature of Gambling Addiction

Medically, addiction is a disorder of the reward system in the brain in terms of gene transcription and epigenetic mechanisms. Addiction has many psychological causes, but physiologically, it is a condition that occurs after long-term exposure to highly addictive stimuli (such as morphine, cocaine, sexual intercourse, gambling, etc.). More importantly, gambling addiction is very similar to sex addiction and drug addiction in neurochemistry, and all of them use pleasure as a reward.

Pleasure comes from the anticipation, desire and fantasy of the results... Therefore, the essence of gambling addiction is compulsive behavior without regard for the consequences.

Addictive behavior is a learning disorder—guilt or other negative consequences no longer play a role in the addictive behavior.

Therefore, gambling addiction itself is a mental illness. If you want to truly quit gambling, you must go to a professional hospital to receive scientific treatment.

Finally, according to my observation, gambling addicts are generally not good at math. Maybe learning math well can help them quit gambling.

2. Why do gamblers always lose everything?

Let's first define what a gambler is. A gambler is an individual who has no correct understanding of probability, has unrealistic expectations and fantasies about profit, and is highly addicted to gambling.

The mathematical principle of a gambler losing everything is the expected value probability. That is to say, in a fair game with a 50% chance of winning or losing, the higher the expected value of a person's profit, the greater the probability of losing everything. (For the specific mathematical formula, see "Gambler's Loss Theorem")

Then the question is, if I am a gambler, can't I just lower my expected profit? Sorry, if I can guide my gambling behavior within a rational framework, then I am not a gambler at all.

For real gamblers, the expected value of profit is always infinite, because it is not the probability calculation that affects the gambler's behavior, but his own mental illness. In the end, gamblers no longer care about winning or losing, but pursue the little excitement generated by the gambling process.

Therefore, gamblers in reality face an infinite expected value of profit (this alone is enough to determine the outcome of losing everything) and an unequal probability of winning or losing.

Gamblers believe in luck, while dog dealers believe in mathematics.

The dog dealers have the probability weapons of mathematical masters such as Gauss, Kelly, Bernoulli, etc., supplemented by the cage of psychological guidance. Therefore, slaughtering gamblers is as easy as cutting melons and vegetables.

How to escape the gambler's theorem? First of all, gambling addiction is a mental illness and must be treated scientifically. Secondly, after curing the gambling addiction, use masters such as Gauss and Kelly to equip your gambling behavior.

If the gambling process does not give you too much pleasure, and winning or losing does not have a big impact on your psychological emotions... then congratulations, you are a person on the shore~

3. The Tragedy of the Contractor

The essence of a contract is leverage. However, leverage only increases your profit and loss ratio, and does not increase your accuracy. If you can't make money by trading spot without leverage, why do you think you can make money by adding leverage?

You can’t make money doing spot trading, and you lose money even faster with leverage. Even if you make money doing spot trading, it doesn’t mean you can make more money by adding leverage to contracts, because the logic of spot trading and contracts is completely different.

I often say that people who do contracts are in a state of "YYDS". But the YYDS here is not "eternal god", but "one against three". When doing contracts, the dealer, time, and borrowed leverage are all your enemies. From a long-term perspective, these enemies are your fate that you cannot defeat.

So, do you still want to do the contract?

4. Ending

Being addicted to contracts is actually a gambler's addiction to quick-in-quick-out gambling. If you want to get rid of gambling addiction, you must have a correct understanding of what gambling is facing? (It is the double harvest of self-mental illness and the rational weapon of the dog dealer).

Treat yourself scientifically, learn more math, and finally... love yourself!