An unexamined life is not worth living. Can the unexamined market survive?
1. Overall view of the current market situation:
(1) In the mid-term of the upward trend of a large cycle
The bull market needs a new narrative + a large amount of off-market funds + the cooperation of the macro environment and other factors to give birth to it. At present, many factors are basically in place. A new copycat leader is needed to take the lead in opening up a market value of hundreds of billions. Then some copycats may experience a blowout. style explosion. The last wave was eth; this wave may be sol, bnb or the big pie ecology. We need to wait for the wind to come and the blessing of market sentiment.
(2) The volatile market before and after the Bitcoin halving
Before June is a good time to invest. The time available for investment is actually quite limited. If the track you are optimistic about encounters a pullback, increase your position.
(3) Pay attention to whether the Federal Reserve will determine the time for interest rate cuts in June (very critical, and also related to whether and how to ship)
(4) In November, pay attention to the external environment and off-market funding situation, and then start to consider issues such as shipment in batches.
There are four reasons why we came to this conclusion:
1. Macro Environment
1. On January 11, 2024, BTC spot passed the ETF, and then on March 5, 2024, BTC broke through the historical high of 69,000. Until now, on April 1, 2024, it has been fluctuating around 60,000-70,000.
The status of traders began to rise, from "you are just a lousy cryptocurrency trader" to "Hello, dear Nasdaq & NYSE, Chicago Stock Exchange, decentralized financial investment research consultants, analysts, investors, and US stock traders."
Bitcoin ETFs have the potential to reshape the market structure of Bitcoin, providing a new source of stable demand. With more institutional participation, the capital channel that can enter this market is opened up, which has attracted the attention of most traditional people.
2. Cancun upgrade on March 13, 2024
3. 2024 is the fourth BTC halving, and the four-year halving is expected to take place in mid-to-late April.
The deflationary nature of Bitcoin is a fundamental attraction for many Bitcoin holders. While fiat currency supply is dependent on central banks and precious metal supply is subject to natural forces, Bitcoin’s issuance rate and total supply have been dictated by its underlying protocol since its inception. The combination of a fixed total supply and a gradually decreasing inflation rate not only creates scarcity, but also builds deflationary properties into Bitcoin.
4. Federal Reserve
(1) On interest rate hikes
The Fed will not raise interest rates again this year: What is clear at present is that the signal of raising interest rates is clear
(2) On interest rate cuts
It has been clearly stated that interest rates will not be cut soon and the exact time of the cut has not been determined, so the speculation about the timing of the subsequent cut and the determination of the exact time of the cut will have an impact on the broader market.
II. Historical Aspect
(1) BTC halving time and price increase
The first Bitcoin halving occurred on November 28, 2012. After the halving, the price of Bitcoin increased by about 90 times to its peak (which took about a year).
The second Bitcoin halving occurred on July 9, 2016. After the halving, the price of Bitcoin increased by about 30 times to its peak (which took about one year and five months).
The third Bitcoin halving occurred on 2020/05/11. After the halving, it rose about 8 times to its peak (which took about a year and six months).
The fourth Bitcoin halving is expected to occur in mid-to-late April 2024.
(2) What is the difference between this halving and previous ones?
BTC exceeded and broke through its all-time high before the halving. The previous three all-time highs were all achieved after the halving.
The fact that Bitcoin has been halved for four years, and the halving will be in April. The previous halvings did not break the historical high before the first halving, but this time it broke the historical high one month before the halving. To summarize the trend of Bitcoin, this round has risen from the bottom of 16,000-70,000, more than 4 times.
3. Micro Level
(1) Market maturity and awareness
Compared with the early halving cycles, the current market has a more mature understanding of Bitcoin; as the price and market awareness increase, more and more people are paying attention to the crypto market.
(2) Technological development
Bitcoin’s technological development and network effects may also affect the trend of this halving cycle, including transaction speed, security, and integration with other financial systems.
(3) Psychological factors
What you buy is not the price, but the psychological expectation. Everyone still has high expectations for the market.
(4) Market sentiment and market expectations
Market sentiment and market expectations will affect investor behavior (at present, market sentiment has been brought to the level, and market expectations are basically in line with expectations.)
5. So what should we do? (Basic personal cultivation)
(1) Give up obsession: With the market trend today, don’t be obsessed with how many times you can earn. Just take whatever you can earn. Otherwise, it’s easy to go on a roller coaster ride again.
(2) Investment mentality and patience
Give up fantasies: Don’t fantasize about buying here and selling there; what we actually need to do is to find a suitable investment method.
(3) In a bull market, you need to do subtraction. Too many, too diverse, and too chaotic target configurations will affect the final results. This kind of lack of concentrated advantages will not bring high returns, and you may even lose money. It is typical that you want everything and everything else, and you may end up with nothing.
(4) Layout ideas: first the trend, then the track, and then the position allocation and management.
Choose a good track and make layout quickly; keep up with the market rhythm and market sentiment, wait for the wind to come, seize the big cycle that is rarely encountered in history, and accumulate wealth based on the trend.
(5) Keep your mind and emotions stable, don’t be too Fomo, don’t blindly follow the crowd, and don’t always compare your earnings with others. Investment ultimately depends on your mind.
(6) Establish your own investment system and investment philosophy. The combination of the layout system and the holding system, combined with the support of the big cycle, can achieve good results and complete further wealth accumulation.
