It is obvious that the current cryptocurrency market has entered a deep bear market. From another perspective, it may also be the end of the bear market.

It is unlikely that there will be any large-scale bull market in 2023. After all, even if the Fed stops raising interest rates, interest rates will remain at a high level and the balance sheet will continue to shrink, draining liquidity from the market. However, there may be a considerable rebound in the middle of 2023. After all, the market has fallen for a year, and the negative factors have basically been digested.

After experiencing the brutal bear market, especially with FIL’s maximum drop of 99%, many believers have begun to doubt. They used to hoard some FIL, thinking they would sell it when it rose to 200 US dollars, then they thought they would sell it when it rose to 100 US dollars, and later they thought they would sell it when it rose to 50 US dollars. Now many FIL investors think they will sell it when it rises to 10 US dollars, and some investors have even started short-term trading, selling it when it rises by 10% and then buying it back when it falls back.

This behavior will lead to a result: when the bottom market comes, it is very easy to miss out! If you invest in FIL for more than a year, experience its inhumane torture, and then trade away your chips at the bottom, it is a pity. Just like the early BTC and ETH, many people have a lot of them, tens of thousands, and now it is difficult for them to take out 10.

Ten truths

Be patient at the bottom and don't speculate, especially when playing with contracts.

This bear market is Filecoin giving everyone very cheap chips, and there may never be such a price in the future:

1. Bitcoin mining is energy-intensive and has high maintenance costs. FIL's "mine" is an IDC computer room, where the cost is relatively small. Smart K merchants will reserve two to three years of computer room fees in advance.

2. Although the market has been falling this year, we have come into contact with many large investors, and they still choose to increase their positions. Regardless of short-term fluctuations, they only believe that FIL will rise in the next bull market in two years. This alone is the reason for their layout.

3. I don’t have to compare FIL with Bitcoin and Ethereum. I just want to say that none of these coins that have increased by thousands or tens of thousands of times have been smooth sailing. Those who are involved are often confused. We must realize that we all have cognitive limitations.

4. FIL cannot guarantee that it will increase to $1,000, nor can it guarantee that this project will succeed. It is an entrepreneurial project, but it gives everyone the opportunity to participate, so please participate rationally and within your means. Don’t get carried away and don’t go all in.

5. A high-risk, high-return opportunity. Since it is a high-risk, high-return opportunity, if you hope to increase by 1,000U, you must be prepared for the possibility of returning to zero. This determines that you need to hold a position that suits you based on your financial capacity and risk tolerance.

6. I am still optimistic about FIL today, not because of how practical FIL's technology is, but because I believe that decentralized storage is a rigid demand for the future of the digital economy metaverse and meets the current development needs of the Web3 industry. Filecoin is the leader in this field, the team's technology and capital background are reliable, and they are relatively down-to-earth in doing things, which are rare in the Web3 field.

7. The biggest flaw now is that the price of FIL is going very badly - everyone has their own joy.

8. But whether the FIL price will reverse, when it will suddenly bottom out and rebound, and soar to the sky, this is beyond my knowledge. I have to admit that my knowledge is limited, because in the last bear market, I was smart and got off the ETH car.

9. When Zhao Changpeng was interviewed, he also said that he could not predict in advance that DeFi would be popular in 2020 and NFT would be popular in 2021.

Therefore, don't go all in, don't get out, manage your positions well, and include the stocks you like as one of your investments. This will keep you calmer. Don't bet all your hopes for financial freedom on FIL. Juan can't afford it.

10. As long as the price of FIL goes up, I believe everyone will hype it up again.

I hope that when prices soar, everyone can also look at it rationally, cash out appropriately, and don't chase high prices. The capital market is in a deep bear stage, liquidity is insufficient, and the sickle will be swung wherever there is heat and leeks. Everyone should still invest or dig at a low position, maintain bi-standard growth, and do not participate in leverage and contract transactions with heavy positions.

Filecoin in 2023 will not be worse than in 2022, and the price of $4 may not have much room to fall. 2023 is likely to be a year of recovery and bottoming out for FIL. Most Filecoin believers thought that the launch of the mainnet in October 2020 was the moment for Filecoin to set sail, but they never thought that 2023 would be the starting point for the ecosystem to set sail.

Buyer Power

Since the ecosystem has just started, what will be the buyer power in the future? What will be its size?

1. Computing power packaging

1. Conventional computing power

(1) Old manufacturers and old customers, reinvestment, and renewal of computing power contracts.

(2) New entrants, mainly institutions and companies.

(3) Believe that retail investors will continue to buy at the bottom.

2. Real data

(1) Filecoin Plus, 10x staking.

2. Hoard coins

1. Various investment institutions and organizations.

2. Believe in retail investors.

3. Speculation on B-market off-site hot money, chasing hot spots.

4. Staking on various Defi platforms.

5. Various types of exchanges.

6. Ecological construction and ecological application:

(1) FIL is used for payment, transaction, and gas in various ecological project application scenarios.

(2) Various hackathons, technical developers.

(3) Various community activities around the world.

(4) Various crypto industry conferences and gatherings play a role in publicity and marketing, allowing more people to become aware of the industry and enter the market.

(5) The biggest driving force is the FVM virtual machine. Currently, there are hundreds of projects on the virtual machine, and each project needs to use FIL as a reward, which increases demand.

7. Search the market and promote active transactions.

8. Investors from emerging markets, other parts of Asia, Europe, America, Africa, Australia and other countries are entering the market one after another.

9. Retention, pledge, lock, freeze, and consumption.

For Filecoin, the search market and virtual machine are extremely important, and can be said to determine whether it can be sublimated in the future. FVM and the search market have been advancing, and the progress has accelerated after the launch of the virtual machine. Hundreds of projects have been developed through hackathons, which has served as a springboard for accelerating the entire Filecoin ecosystem.

After the programmable virtual machine is implemented, ecological construction will follow. All ecosystems on FVM will need to use FIL as remuneration, and the demand for FIL will increase significantly.

The pledge rate of POS nodes is also expected to increase. Currently, the pledge rate of the Filecon network is about 34%, while the average pledge rate of other POS public chains is 61%. The implementation of the virtual machine can increase the pledge rate of verification nodes and lock up a large amount of FIL to reduce circulation.

If the bottom is established well in the first half of the year, the virtual machine ecosystem will then enter the construction phase, and the possibility of speculation cannot be ruled out. If the entire market recovers, the momentum may be relatively strong.

As a large public chain of decentralized storage, Filecoin is the infrastructure for the blockchain industry and large Web2 platforms to move to Web3. As a project with practical application scenarios and contributions to society, we need more confidence, patience and perseverance. The darkest moment has passed, and there is no need to panic.

Article Source:

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/xznOA6F5_SB2WhmkVQHXhw