We have collected the Launchpad data from 2021 to the present, used the data to speak, evaluated the current Launchpad income level compared with history, and calculated the new rate of return for long-term BNB holdings based on the ETH staking return, to help you comprehensively analyze "BNB's income"

The picture above shows Launchpad historical data and indicator explanation:

1. First day increase: the price increase at the first UTC+0:00 after listing compared to IDO

2. The largest increase in history: the increase in the historical highest price compared to IDO

3.BNB standard return rate on the first day: 1BNB is new, and the number of BNB that can be obtained by selling tokens on the first day

4. BNB-based maximum rate of return in history: 1 BNB is purchased, and the amount of BNB that can be obtained by selling at the highest price in history

A. Evaluate the level of income

Taking the median of all Launcpad projects in the past 21 years, the first-day increase is 12.6 times, the largest increase in history is 25.7 times, the first-day return rate of BNB is 0.015, and the maximum return rate in BNB history is 0.031

As for the three tokens that have been launched since HOOK, all indicators are at the mid-to-upper level. The median first-day increase is 24.4 times, which is 1.9 times the historical median. The maximum historical increase is 1.4 times the historical median. The first-day return of BNB standard is 1.5 times, and the maximum historical return of BNB is 1.3 times. In other words, these projects in the bear market are actually more profitable than most projects in the bull market.

The current policy is also more friendly to arbitrage users. Compared with the previous uneven returns, the BNB-based returns of the past three projects are all around 2%. If the terms of Launchpad remain similar to these in the future, then through For users who buy short spot contracts and make new contracts, as well as those who borrow BNB from Venus to make new contracts, they basically have a relatively stable expectation.

B. Why is there feedback from the community that it is “boring”

The question is, why do I always feel less powerful than before? The reason is mostly due to the lack of big hot spots. In 21/22, there will be products like SFP/GMT with a maximum return of hundreds of times. If you get it, one of them is worth ten. There was about a year between the last round of SFP and GMT, and after another year of GMT, there has been no project that has achieved the same level of increase.

It is normal for a phenomenal project to give people a stronger impression than three intermediate and superior projects. When you look at the picture below, your first reaction is probably to go to GMT. GMT What is the concept of the so-called BNB-based historical maximum return rate of 0.46?

That is, if you use 1BNB to play the new GMT, the top can be sold for 0.46 BNB, and SFP can even use 1 BNB to play 1.56 BNB! No wonder everyone is so impressed. In comparison, the current maximum return of 0.0X is somewhat uninteresting.

However, what is more interesting is that the first-day increase performance of SFP/GMT was relatively average, only 12 times, which is half of Hook/EDU. The three new projects have not been online for a long time. In the current bear market, it is difficult for models such as ponzi to become popular, so there should be no need to have too high expectations for the time being.

C. BNB long-term holding income

The annualized return of BNB LaunchPad can actually be benchmarked against the ETH staking return. For about 2 and a half years since 2021, if the tokens are sold on the first day, the BNB-based total return will be 36%, and the annualized return will be 14%. , which seems to be slightly higher than the income of ETH Staking during the same period.

However, BNB also has the income from Launchpool. If we add the income from Launchpool mining and selling in the figure below, the total return rate of BNB is 52%, and the annualized rate is 21%, which is almost more than 2 times the ETH Staking income in the same period.

The total return of the project in the past year since the bear market is about 9.5%, and the ETH Staking APR that benefits from MEV income after the Merge is about 6%. It means that in the bear market, the return rate of BNB new creation still maintains 1.5 times the income of ETH Staking.

If a bull market comes, as tweeted, ETH Staking income is expected to benefit from MEV income, and BNB Launchpad is expected to usher in a double-click in volume and growth. However, the current pledge rate of ETH is low, and there is still 2-3 times room for growth compared to other L1s, which may dilute earnings due to more pledges.

https://twitter.com/nintendodoomed/status/1650447891385942016?s=46&t=qRvGmNXyeuON44hVoOyieQ

Launchpad's new trading amount currently seems to be relatively stable at around 10M for both bulls and bears. Coupled with the temptation of "the largest return in history", BNB is relatively more resilient in the bull market.

Of course, BNB/ETH are currently destroying deflation and BNB’s destruction speed is significantly faster. However, the benefits brought by the destruction should be directly reflected in the currency price. The long-term trend of BNB/ETH has been upward in history. Since 21 BNB/ETH is basically in a state of sideways fluctuations, so it is more reasonable to directly compare the staking income and the Staking income.

Summarize

Since the bear market, the comprehensive return rate of Launchpad's three projects has been in the upper-middle range of history, with various indicators approximately 1.3-1.9 times the historical median, and the current first-day return rate of BNB is stable at around 2%, which is suitable for arbitrage.

There has been no SFP/GMT etc. for a year, and it is possible to achieve a phenomenal return of up to 1.5 BNB for one BNB. The negative market feedback may come from this.

Comparing ETH Staking, the current long-term return of BNB is about 9.5%, which is 1.5 times that of ETH. In the past bull market, the return of BNB was about more than twice that of ETH, and it is expected to be more in the future bull market. Has upward elasticity.

However, you cannot just press the calculator. In the next round of bull market, the Usecase of ETH/BNB may be the key factor in determining returns. Currently, ETH L2 is developing well, and whether BNB Chain can continue to make efforts is also a point that requires special attention.

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