In the context of Bitcoin price surpassing 71,000 USD and the market is in a state of extreme greed, the question "When?" becomes especially important in predicting price fluctuations of this currency. Interest in when the uptrend ends is growing, especially as the cyclical nature of Bitcoin may provide clues.
Main Motivation Behind Uptrend
Bitcoin's notable price rally in early 2024 was largely driven by interest in Bitcoin ETFs, with data from CryptoQuant showing that US spot ETFs are holding nearly 813,000 BTC, representing about 4% of supply circulate. This growth, spanning over the past two months, shows an ongoing trend of increasing BTC collection.
Ki Young Yu, CEO of CryptoQuant, commented that this uptrend could last at least until the end of the third quarter of 2024, provided that the flow of Bitcoin into ETFs continues. He also pointed out that a liquidity crisis for sellers could occur within six months if this situation does not change.
Role of Realized Cap
Realized Cap, the actual capitalization calculated based on the last trading price of each UTXO, provides another approach to evaluating the uptrend. The capital conversion between new and old investors, when their Realized Cap intersects, is an indication of the movement of BTC into the hands of new investors. According to @AxelAdlerJr from CryptoQuant, this process usually lasts 6 to 18 months before the Bitcoin price peaks.
The phenomenon of Realized Cap of new investors surpassing old investors has lasted for 2 months, suggesting that the uptrend may continue for another 4 to 16 months before there is a reversal in price.
