Bitcoin’s realized price has triggered bullish signals three times in a row, and the latest data shows that Bitcoin’s realized price is about to break through the long-term holder’s realized price. The long-term holder’s realized price refers to coins that have not moved for at least 155 days and are not on major centralized cryptocurrency exchanges. The past three times the realized price broke through the long-term holder’s realized price, Bitcoin saw a parabolic rise in the following years. In addition, all eight technical and on-chain indicators tracked by Glassnode’s “Recovering Bitcoin Bears” dashboard have sent bullish signals for most of the past six weeks or so.
According to the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, the Bitcoin market cycle is approximately four years, showing the estimated price level based on the number of Bitcoins available on the market relative to the number mined each year. Overall, Bitcoin is gradually recovering from being highly oversold, and if this feat can be repeated within one to one and a half years during the next halving market cycle, the model suggests that Bitcoin could reach a price range of $200-300K.
