S&P Futures: It has been a long time since I reviewed ES. From the current pattern, it is actually very strong and has the potential to break through the cup handle. The key point now is whether the 4180 area, which has been tested so many times in the early stage, can break through and stand firm. To understand the meaning of standing firm, it must be at least the daily level opening and closing are above this price, and the K-line pattern that does not break after stepping back can relatively prove the statement of standing firm.
The market is relatively optimistic about the future market based on the news, especially the main line of AI in the US stock market this year, which has almost become a life-saving straw for the US stock market. However, traditional industries, especially banks, are really worrying. The banking crisis has not been resolved. Last Friday, First Republic Bank FRC also began to have problems. This series of reactions has not been reflected in the market, and it can be felt that most investors are very optimistic, so I can only maintain a more cautious attitude. For individuals, as long as the fundamentals are not greatly released, no matter which market it is, I will not be actively bullish at this position, and I will try to focus on short-term strategies.
ES pays attention to the two positions of 4180 and 4300 above. If it can really stabilize at 4180 and break upward, and then make a false breakthrough at 4300, it may be an opportunity to arrange short orders in the medium and long term. Of course, there is also the possibility that it will be unable to fall back after breaking through 4180, forming a false breakthrough. However, there is no sign of exhaustion at present. Let's take it one step at a time.
US Dollar Index: DXY previously indicated that it had bottomed out near 101 at the end of February, then rebounded to the previous high near 106 and gained high liquidity before starting to fall again. It has now come back to test the support around 101 but has not broken down smoothly. The support at this position cannot be ignored. Although the US dollar is definitely on a downward trend in the long run, it is very difficult for this type of product to follow a unilateral trend, especially with the credit endorsement of the United States. Combined with the current situation, I believe that there will be another wave of rebounds before it is possible to continue to move smoothly downward. This is also the reason why I am not optimistic about equity assets, including US stocks and the coin circle. If it can reach the white area above or the red overlapping area, it may be a better opportunity to choose to go long on equity assets. (
The most important pie:
Weekly chart, it is still hovering around the large-scale long-short conversion position of 28800, which also proves that this band is the position that both long and short sides are fighting for. The positive line closed last week did not form a strong reverse package, and this position will continue to consolidate. When it is confirmed to fall back to 28800 or stabilize at 28800, large-scale traders will consider taking action.
From the daily level, we have been reminding people not to chase short positions at low levels around April 24. Whether from the market or the position, there is a possibility of rebound. Afterwards, it has indeed emerged from the rebound trend. However, at present, I personally think that this wave of rebound may not be over yet.
From the 1h level, last night's pull-up was still a little short of the mark, with some signs of a sneak run, because the large liquidity is generally in the previous consolidation zone's POC position of 30200 or the previous high of 31050. It started to fall before these two positions were reached, but I still maintain that at least it should come back to test this position and then look for a downward trend in the K-line pattern before considering shorting.
At this position, if it can stabilize above 28500, I will try to make a small-scale long order with a clear stop loss, which is today's low, and the profit and loss ratio is relatively good. The previous target was the 30200 mentioned above and the new high.
Another reason for not shorting at this position is that a lot of short orders have accumulated at a low level, so I am more inclined to consider going long at this position.
