#BTC #glassnode #new+ #ончейн
The dynamics of capital flows, exchange activity, leverage in crypto derivatives and demand from institutions all indicate a jump in risk appetite among Bitcoin investors. Glassnode came to this conclusion.
The risk appetite for#Bitcoininvestors is increasing, with growing signs of speculation appearing across capital flows, exchange activity, derivatives leverage, and even institutional demand.
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— glassnode (@glassnode) February 27, 2024
Analysts noted that the consolidation around $52,000 before the jump to $59,000 was supported by fresh capital inflows. This was reflected in the realized capitalization metric rising by $30 billion since the beginning of the year. The indicator reached $460 billion, which is only 3% lower than the ATH. Even before the new round of the rally, the unrealized profit of the “average” holder reached 120%, the highest since November 2022. Such a high value was observed only on 1,126 out of 4,965 (22.7%) trading days, based on the MVRV analysis. Analysts looked at the SOPR indicator to estimate the average realized profit or loss by category of market participants:
🟠 average market SOPR: 1.13 (+13%);
🔵 SOPR for hodlers: 2.07 (+107%);
🔴 SOPR for speculators: 1.02 (+2%).
As with MVRV, the current situation corresponds to the most euphoric phase of the 2017 and 2021 bull markets. As a measure of trading activity and speculation, experts also looked at the dynamics of flows to crypto exchanges.
The total volume of deposits and withdrawals reached a “staggering” $5.57 billion. For comparison, the historical maximum is $6.2 billion. Having segregated exchange deposits into separate categories, experts obtained the following values:
🔴 short-term holders +$2.1 billion;
🔵 long-term investors +$120 million;
🟢 transactions between platforms +$354 million.
Since mid-January, the daily volume of coins received by short-term players in value terms has exceeded and remains stable at $2 billion. At one point, the indicator reached a new ATH ($2.46 billion). According to analysts, the figures highlight the high degree of speculative interest. The benefit of the conclusion about the excitement of buyers is also indicated by the dynamics of the relative share of coins sent by short-term traders to centralized platforms. In the context of one day since October 2023, the indicator has grown from 1%+ to the maximum since the sell-off in March 2020 of 2.36%. According to experts' calculations, a record 78.3% of the total transaction volume on the network is associated with crypto exchanges. Spot Bitcoin ETFs led to an "incredible" net inflow of 90,000 BTC. As a result, the AUM of product issuers increased by $5.7 billion, to $38 billion. Signs of speculative sentiment also appeared in the crypto derivatives market. Total open interest (OI) in bitcoin futures reached $21 billion. Only 7% of trading days showed a higher value. In dollar terms, OI approached the 2021 euphoria levels. In the options market, OI jumped to $17.8 billion, almost on par with the futures market.At the moment, the metric reached a new ATH of $20 billion. In the perpetual contracts market, the annual cost of financing jumped from 3% to 14.7%.
Analysts have found several explanations for this:
traders are willing to pay much higher interest rates to use leverage;
A short seller of the contracts can now get two to three times the "risk-free" rate compared to U.S. Treasury bills;
such an attractive yield can contribute to the return of market makers, increasing market liquidity.increasing liquidation of short position holders. Over the past 30 days, the indicator has exceeded $465 million. Recall that Matrixport analysts allowed bitcoin to grow to $63,000 in March. Experts also attributed halving to catalysts.
Earlier, Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee predicted digital gold would reach $150,000 by the end of 2024.
