Why I think the World Cup market is not over yet. This article was originally written on October 17 and updated on the Twitter account @0xzhujun.

There were two views in the market at that time.

1. Binance’s three musketeers ($Santos, $Lazio, $Porto) were unlocked in large quantities in October and November

2. The last World Cup ended one and a half months before the start of the World Cup.

These two views make people choose to sell World Cup related targets/dare not buy World Cup related targets, fearing that the situation will be the same as the last World Cup and not taking advantage of the tail market.

My personal opinion is that the World Cup Fan Coin market has not yet ended. The reason is also based on the two situations mentioned above.

First, from the perspective of token unlocking, even if everyone knows that a large amount of chips will be released, they generally will not choose to go long or short, because after the tokens are released, there is a possibility of crashing the market or pulling it up.

So how do we judge which trend the dealer will choose after releasing the chips? (We can only judge from a logical point of view, the market is not only a game of funds, but also a psychological game)

I think we can think about it from two directions.

1. The number of tokens obtained by retail investors from the released chips.

2. Is there any new hot spot after the project is released?

$Lazio 10.21 will release 10.5% of the total supply, including: Developer Fund Release: 2%

Team release: 3%

User fund release: 3.5%

Loyalty Subscription Free: 2%

The developer fund + team account for 5%. I haven’t found the purpose of the user fund. I guess it is used for marketing and is managed by the project party. The loyalty subscription accounts for 2%. This part of the tokens is owned by retail investors.

Even if the chips released by the banker are greater than those released by retail investors, it cannot be judged that the banker will pull the market. This depends on whether the subsequent projects are hot topics. In the bear market, liquidity is tight, and many projects are selling coins to survive, such as $YFII, which directly smashes the market. But should you sell the chips directly after getting them? Or wait for an opportunity to sell them?

This is a question of profit and loss ratio. The World Cup, which is held every four years, is coming. I don’t think the dealer will get the chips and smash the market directly.

The second influencing factor is that everyone is replacing the market situation in 2018 with the current situation, because the World Cup market has been hyped for several rounds, and people are worried that when the World Cup is approaching, it will be the time for the dog dealer to sell. How to say it, trading is against human nature. There are indeed many profit-taking orders from the previous speculations. Human nature is afraid of uncertainty.

Thinking from the perspective of the banker, under the sword of these two negative factors, the market will be smashed to make everyone believe that the World Cup market is over, and then the position will be collected to hype up another wave of World Cup market, which will maximize the benefits.

At present, the price of the Three Musketeers has fallen by half from its high. The tokens have not been unlocked yet. If they are unlocked and then dumped, I don’t think it is a good choice. The best solution is to speculate on the World Cup market again.

And if you believe there will be a market in November, you should believe in fan tokens even more.

1. After the merger of Ethereum, the World Cup is the only hot spot in the market, and there are many sub-sectors.

2. CHZ is a company that has not opened for four years, but has made a profit for four years since it opened. CHZ chain 2.0 has not been launched yet, and the World Cup market is about to end. Does CHZ have to wait another four years?

3. The World Cup sector is a track that can introduce incremental growth and bring in more off-site funds. The bookmakers will not miss this opportunity to attract traffic.

One more thing to add: Because $lazio's chips will be unlocked earlier than the other two tokens, I estimate that $lazio's trend will be better than $santos $porto. Bad news = good news, I prefer lazio (this article was written before $LAZIO was pulled up, and there was no idea of ​​bringing goods. Now Binance has launched a World Cup event. Holders of lazio, santos, alpine, and porto can receive passports and participate in World Cup events. They all have the opportunity)