To give you a perspective, Nvidia’s stock price has hit a new high recently. Indeed, TV news has been reporting a lot on it. Even relatives and friends who don’t play in the US stock market are starting to discuss it. At this time, the shoe shine boy theory began to appear on the Internet.

But the shoeshine boy theory means that when everyone starts to discuss it widely, it means that the market is overheated, so it means that it is a warning signal of a high point. But is the market really overheated? Overheating means that too many people have entered the market.

Where is the data support for overheating? Is it just speculation?

Is it excessive for a company to quadruple its revenue last year and have its stock price rise two or three times? Or do you have insiders who already know in advance that NVDA's revenue this quarter is not as good as expected.

The judgment of a single stock and the entire market should also be made with the support of data. Recently, US stocks, Japanese stocks, and Taiwan stocks have all hit new highs. Many people are beginning to be afraid of heights, but data support is still needed to be reliable.

I see no reason to be pessimistic about the U.S. stock market. Inflation is under control, the unemployment rate continues to decline, and the salary growth rate exceeds inflation, so it is not painful to face inflation. I personally use these data for observation. If it is too high, it will be too weak to judge the next trend.

I am also very optimistic about cryptocurrency as a whole. Maybe I can see more data, such as the number of new users per week, the number of active users, the number of reactive users, etc. None of the above makes me feel that it is hot recently XDD